If I were a participant in the Survival Pool this week, I'd pick Refractor in the 16F Diamond Stakes.
Granted, it is a tough field with headliners such as Druido Supremo and Pluto in attendance, but Refractor is fully mature and primed for a victory.
Fortnightly and Superb Thinking are both solid competitors, but have bit off a little more than they can chew in this race. They are certainly qualified to compete in a GR2 race such as this, but with the scarcity of 16F races they will probably continue to bump heads with the top guns, which does not bode well for them.
At first glance, you wonder why Thunder Storm is in this field against such salty competition. He has had a fairly undistinguished career up until this point until he sparkled with a 110 PSR at 16F a month ago at Shenandoah Downs. The connections at Alba Chiara thought that was enough to take him out of the kiddies pool and throw him in the deep end with this race. Unfortunately, he'll be intimidated and dominated, finishing no better than 5th.
Quake is an interesting filly. She's never run at less than 16F and has put up some decent PSR's while doing so. She faced similar competition in the Breeders Cup Endurance last year and actually forced the pace for most of the race before running out of gas in the final couple furlongs to finish a disappointing 8th. More of the same in this race I suspect.
That leaves the big three, Druido Supremo, Pluto, and Refractor.
As good as Pluto is, Refractor has his number, beating him handily the last 2 times they've met at 16F by a combined 9 lengths. Druido Supremo and Refractor have split the last two meetings, but with Refractor now fully grown and mature as a 4yo, he will be exceptionally tough to beat at this distance. In fact the slowest time he has ever registered at 16F is 3:17.40.
GR2 Diamond Stakes 16F Turf
- Refractor
- Druido Supremo
- Pluto
- Quake
No comments:
Post a Comment