This actually started out as a response in the comments section of a previous article. Then, I started typing and figured that it might be better if I made it a post. Wasn't sure if there's a limit to how much you can put in a comment, and I can tend to go on a bit when I'm on a subject. So, here we are with a reply in the comment section that turned into a blog post of a sort.
First, I might as well address my "fingers on a chalkboard" response to "kick rating". The number, in my research, has an entirely different meaning as to what people think. So, that's what causes my my reaction when it's mentioned. I'll leave it at that for now.
The distance line in an AR means nothing to me. Most of my "lots of distance" horses start off in sprints (occasionally, a middle distance). They only move on to distance when I see actual signs that they need to move on.
Back when I would go through the horses placed on the sales list, I managed to pick up a few "distance" horses that were better suited to much shorter distances.
Quixote, who is now a stallion in my barn, "likes a lot of distance". He debuted, for another stable, at six furlongs. His next seven races were from a mile to ten and a half furlongs. I purchased him at the start of his 4YO season. Of his next twenty-one races with me, nineteen of them were from five and a half to seven furlongs, with the other two being at a mile and a mile and a sixteenth. A win and a loss by half a head, by the way. He had a decent little career that showed me enough for him to stick around the barn as a stallion.
Secretofmysuccess also "likes a lot of distance". The first thirteen races of his career were managed by another stable. I purchased him off the sales page midway through his 3YO season. The distances of his five races to that point of the season were run at the following distances: 11, 10, 11, 11, and 12 furlongs. I immediately dropped him down to five and a half furlongs for his first start in his new colors. He put up the highest PSR of his career to that point, with a 106. Two starts later, he broke his maiden. At five furlongs, with a 100. Of the thirty-one starts that he ended up making for me, thirty of them were under a mile. The other was at a mile, in which he finished second by half a length. If I had the room, I probably would've have kept him around for a few seasons to use as a stallion. Lots of things to like, for me anyway. Very long peak. Very fast out of the gate. Rated very well. Lots of courage.
Magic Is Might is the world record holder at eleven furlongs on the turf. I purchased him after the first two starts of his career. Both last place finishes at distances of eight and nine furlongs. After I brought him on board, I dropped him into a four and a half furlong race. It wasn't that I thought he couldn't handle distance, just that he was nowhere near ready. He actually beat three horse home and posted a respectable 88 PSR (which was better than his first two numbers combined). After a couple of lackluster dirt attempts, he went back to the lawn and broke his maiden at a mile two starts later. From that point on, he raced nineteen more times. All between 8.5 and 12 furlongs with only three PSR's below 100, with the lowest being a 94. He ended up setting three track records and two world records. He was a distance type that I didn't take past a mile until June of his 3YO season, in his eighth career start.
There are "lots of distance" horses in my barn that are entering their 4YO season and have yet to go beyond nine panels. Will they eventually stretch out to "lots of distance"? Possibly. As they mature and progress in their careers, I'll evaluate where they go next. But, the "lots of distance" line won't dictate anything. I may end up finding a "pet" distance for them along the way and they'll end up staying there. There's no sense trying to fit a round peg into a square hole. Especially, if I find a round hole along the way.
I definitely agree with Chris though. Many people read entirely too much into an AR. It's a tool. A guide. Part of a much larger picture. Nothing more. Certainly not gospel.
7 comments:
Where to begin?
I commented on my feelings bout Kick in the comments section of Chris' post.
AR's that say distance used to be a complete farce because the distance line on the AR was generated by the Kick rating and not the Stamina rating. Laurie has corrected that, so the AR's should be more accurate now with regard to their prediction on distance.
For instance, I took a snapshot of Quixote during the height of his career. his numbers were 83, 91, 93, 67, 1005. Obviously not a distance horse with a stamina of 67. This would have been immediately apparent to ANYONE who took a look at the numbers after his first race. His long distance AR designation was fashioned by his high Kick rating.
Same with Secretofmysuccess. His numbers as a 3yo were 82, 90, 92, 68, 980. Not a distance horse, and that should have been easily identifiable by looking at the numbers. His owner at the time (Laurabelle, I presume) made a grave mistake by continuing to run him at 10-12F. The horse simply was not gonna succeed at those distance with a 68 Stamina.
I'm not even going to look up the third example DJ mentioned. I'm sure the sitch is exactly the same.
The point is, look at the numbers people. If you take the AR as gospel, you could be making a monumental mistake. That being said... they are more correct now regarding distance than they used to be in the past.
Oh yeah... and Kick matters. :)
Jim, I'm about to send you an email on "kick". It'll be easier to converse that way on it.
Actually, Kick rating has nothing to do with the ARs. I've never used it to generate ARs or for much of anything else. Kick is calculated by HRF based on a horse's stamina and runstyle. The distance line on the AR is generated using a horse's max distance, adjusted by stamina. In the past it wasn't adjusted, and since a horse's max distance can be way out of whack with his stamina, it was often times very inaccurate. At times it can still be pretty inaccurate, but it's better than it used to be.
Hmmm...
I remember distinctly a conversation we had via email Laurie, where you said the distance line on the AR was generated (at least in part) by the Kick rating... which explained perfectly why a horse like French Twist (67 stamina, 1100 kick) had the distance line on his AR.
I can't be mistaken about that, can I?
I could probably explain it, if anyone was interested...
Sorry, Jim, but you are mistaken. The Kick scores don't even go on the horses until after their ARs have been generated. French Twist has that line because his max distance score is 14.6.
OK, now I am confused. You said the kick scores don't go on the horses until after the AR is generated. But don't you generate the AR's? Why would the generation of the AR have anything to do with the kick rating?
I would like to know how French Twist could possibly have a max distance of 14.6 with his very ordinary stamina 67.
That makes no sense at all.
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