Overall, I'm very optimistic about the upcoming racing season. However, there are a few questions that could affect just how successful 2010 will be:
- Have we invested too heavily in veteran racers? It is possible that Doomsday, Affirm Gal, King of the Sea, and Union Jack are all past their prime. I would say that the best candidates for an ability drop-off are Doomsday and Affirm Gal. We'll keep a close eye on their performance and race them sparingly if performance starts to wane. We are pretty confident that King of the Sea and Union Jack have at least another year in them.
- Will the relative lack of filly and mare racers be problematic? We have only 2 females in our string of 16 racers. They are Affirm Gal and the 2yo Rogue. We had a very similar situation last season, beginning the year with 3 female racers, Nova, Lady Katherine, and Dragon Force, and ending up with just one. Frankly, we didn't think it was a problem then, or now.
- Will the lack of 3yo racers be problematic? This is a bit of an issue. Selling Night Thrasher and Dragon Force and not replacing them with same-age horses has left us very short for the lucrative 3yo races in 2010. Just two out of 16 of our racers are 3yo's, Big Slick and Mister Fantastic. We do like both of these horses though and we think that Big Slick in particular may be Derby-worthy if he can stay healthy early in the season.
- Does Confederation still have what it takes to win? One of the most successful stables in the game, FDL Lodge, may have felt that Confederation had reached the end of the line. After looking at the statistics, I had to disagree. I felt that a $400,000 outlay for a horse that won $1.6 million last season, in impressive fashion I might add, was a great investment. I think that Confederation was run a little too frequently, and that may have contributed to his multitude of 2nd place finishes. He had a 2009 record of 15-2-7-3. He'll run in about 10 races this year at no farther than 10 furlongs. We predict a fine season.
- How is Rogue going to perform? This is a question that is very important and also unanswerable. Important because she is War Machine's first baby to hit the track for Otsego Farms, and unanswerable because you just never know with a new racer. Rogue has a very nice AR, with no obvious holes. However, as you all know, it all comes together on the track. I've got my fingers crossed.
Good luck to all, and let's get racing!
1 comment:
Somes of the concerns you have also concern me with my stable, There is not much I could do about it. I only have 1 filly in my stable and a 2yo to boot , that closes out a lot of races for me and earning potencial.
lack of 3yo's I dont have any , just did not like any 3yo that I could afford in the auction so that leaves me out of a huge amount of races again. well my burning questions are with the fate of my new 2yo's as well , its going to be so tough to make a buck this season with 2yo's just hope 1 or 2 can make it into the bigtime. 1 thing I am going to do is not look at the odds before the race when all my horses race.
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