Can you handle the truth?

Since the breeding season is upon us, I thought this article might be timely.  This is a reprint from the Otsego Insider, Saturday, October 18th, 2008.

These fantasy horses are very complex critters.

When a new foal is born, we are presented with a short AR which gives us rudimentary information about the new arrival. That information, plus what we can glean from studying the history of the sire and dam, is all we have to plan the new horses future.

Later, we gain more information by watching the horse race. Eventually, we develop a clear picture of the horses abilities and shortcomings. Sometimes this revelation comes quickly, sometimes it doesn't.

As I said, these fantasy horses are very complex critters. The small amount of information on the AR camouflage's the fact that there are many, many facets to the abilities and disabilities of each horse.

Here is a list of the attributes of each horse in the Photo-Finish game.

• Break Speed
• Early Speed
• Top Speed
• Long Stamina
• Ratability
• Running on Lead
• Handles Traffic
• Courage
• Soundness
• Curve Ability
• Durability
• Consistency
• Weight Stress Point
• Begin Peak Age
• End Peak Age
• Peak % at Age 3.3
• Running Style
• Acceleration
• Hard Dirt Ability
• Soft Dirt Ability
• Mud Ability
• Firm Turf Ability
• Soft Turf Ability

I imagine that many of these rating are intertwined when it comes to the horse performance on the track. For instance, a Poor Break Speed and the Far Back Running Style, may spell doom for a 5-furlong sprinter even if he has the most illustrious parents. Conversely, if all of the proper attributes fall correctly into place, you can have a superstar from relatively humble origins.

The attributes for each foal are determined by a mathematical breeding program devised by Photo-Finish Founder Laurie Brown.

Each attribute for the new foal is determined in the following manner:

• 30% probability of using the sire rating
• 30% probability of using the dam rating
• 25% probability of using the average of the sire and dam rating
• 15% random probability

NOTE: The above used to be 25/25/25/25, but it was tweaked to reduce the random element somewhat.

Some Photo-Finish participants adhere to the belief that breeding is pure luck. As anyone can plainly see, the random probability is limited to 15%. Therefore 85% of the foal attributes are determined solely by the sire and dam. Unequivocally, this means that it is better to use the best quality sire and dam you can and to trust in statistical probability to produce a high quality foal.

However as shown above, there are many attributes to be determined for each horse and it is possible that poor ratings in key areas can torpedo a foal's future on the track. These poor ratings can be a result of a random anomaly or because both parents had a common weakness that manifests itself in the foal.

Those who trust in "pure luck" and pick poor studs or severely mismatched breeding pairs are statistically more apt to fail. That is a fact that cannot be disputed.