Unsolicited advice to no one in particular.

Every owner has the responsibility to ascertain the strengths and weaknesses of their horses to the extent of which their time or interest allows.

We all use the Ability Report (AR) to some degree as a starting point.  To this we add what we may glean from the horses race performance.  Finally, we analyze the statistics from the .rce files, and a picture of the horses true abilities begin to emerge.

With all of the data to consider and digest, why do we sometimes make bad decisions regarding entries?

I have a specific case in mind; a 3yo colt named Secret Energy.

I have not seen this horses AR, so I do not know if the owner has been mislead by the printed word.  But simply looking at the race history leads me to the belief that he is a sprinter.  He put up a 118 PSR, and finished 1st at 4.5F and finished 2nd with a 104 PSR at 5F.  His efforts at longer distances have been poor.  His most recent stat line reads as follows: Break Speed 76, Early Speed 91, Top Speed 92, Long Stamina 64.

That LS rating of 64 screams SPRINTER.  It is one of the lowest scores I have ever seen and pigeon-holes this fellow into races of 5F or less.  His ES/TS of 91/92 is pretty good, explaining why he did well at those short races.  Why then, in the name of Willie Shoemaker, has Secret Energy run his last two races at 10F and (gasp) 14F?

He finished in last place in both races, and in the 14F St. Leger, was an astounding 105L back of the winner.  Perhaps the most ill-advised entry I have ever seen... and I've seen some doozies.  Please note: Beerfest finished 53L back and was only slightly less preposterous as an entry in this race with a LS of 67.  He shouldn't ever go beyond 8F in my opinion, even though his last four races have been at 14F, 16F, 16F, and 12F.

Back to Secret Energy.  This is a sprinter.  His performance suggests it and his HRF speed attributes confirm it.  I would recommend that he go back to sprints and stay there.  He'll be much more successful, that I guarantee.

Moral of this story?  Use the published evidence on your horse to properly place him.  It's all there, you just gotta look at it and think a little bit.