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Wednesday, February 01, 2012

2016 Outlook for Otsego Farms

As 2015 winds down, I've been making plans on who will be racing for Otsego Farms in 2016.  The following horses are assured a spot on the roster for next season:

Shatterstar - He'll be 7 next season and I've never raced a 7yo.  We'll make an exception in his case though.  He's no superstar, but he projects with a very long career peak and he fashioned a 8-3-3-1 record with earnings of $238,750 so far in 2015.  He's earned another season.

Crossbones - He also has a very long career peak so he'll be back as a 5yo in 2016.  He has quite a bit of ability, but bouts of inconsistancy have plagued him. 

House of M - All she does is hit the board and put up 100+ PSR's.  Her record in 2015 is 7-2-3-2 with earnings of $900,000.  She'll race next year, then retire to a career as a broodmare.

Methy Bus - This horse has become a stable favorite since his acquisition from Smokey's Stable.  His long projected career length means he'll race for at least 1-2 more seasons.  In 2015, he has been 7-4-2-0 with earnings of $1,705,000.  He is a force to be reckoned with at 10-12 furlongs against even the stoutest competition.

Refractor -  He is perhaps the greatest 2-miler in the history of Photo Finish.  Throw out the ill-conceived entry in the Gold Cup and he has a record of 7-6-1-0 with an average PSR of 119 at 16F.  He was a tad slow to mature and coupling that with his average length career peak means that he should have at least one more year to wreak havoc on the 16F circuit.

Azrael - He has shown signs that he's ready to bust out and make a name for himself.  He'll be back in 2016.

Kit Fisto - Has not found the winners circle in 11 career starts, but has finished 2nd five times, so he has been in the hunt.  He is less talented than Azrael, so he'll be on a short leash in 2016.

Mocha Milkshake - He should finally be mature as a 4yo in 2016.  He has definite potential and he'll have all of 2016 to show us what he's got.

You Know My Name - She's a consistent producer who will definitely have a spot on the racing roster in 2016.  She usually hovers around the 100 PSR mark and is always a threat in races that are just below the top tier.

Astrapios - We are hoping this colt will be Refractor's successor at 16F.  We think he'll have the raw ability to win at 2 miles when he is mature.  He made remarkable strides in his second race, finishing 2nd and cutting 14 seconds off his time at 16F.  We think only Refractor and Alphabet stand in his way.

Jack the Ripper - He's a chip off the old Union Jack block.  Has looked very competitive in  his three career starts with a record of 3-1-1-0.  He's better on turf, but he might be a Derby comtender anyway.

Warp Factor Ten - His speed is coming around and he's got the genes to make a splash.  So far as a 2yo he has a record of 6-2-1-1.  He should be a sprinter of note in 2016.

These horses have the rest of this season and perhaps a bit of next season to secure a stall:

Charlemagne, Crackerjack, Juggernaut, Samurai Jack, and Trebuchet - Their bodies of work are very limited so I'm trying not to make any rash decisions.  Hopefully, all five 2yo colts will be back in 2016.  It's possible though that one or more of these fellows will go by year-end or at the auction.

Xtra Run - This filly has raw speed, but has a couple holes in her abilities as well.  She'll be a 4yo in 2016 and doesn't have a lot of time to get straightened out.

Boudica - She is an ultra-immature filly and it showed in a disastrous debut.  I hope I have the patience to see how she does next year.

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