Cautiously optimistic...

Change comes quickly in the horse racing racket. 

I've had seasons when my veteran racers looked productive and my youngsters showed promise.  Then disaster strikes as inexorably as the iceberg that sunk the Titanic.  All of a sudden, you realize that your string isn't as good as you thought, and you start planning for next season.

Right now, I'm feeling pretty good.  My lookouts have their binoculars trained on the horizon and they are reporting clear sailing ahead.

My veteran racers are rock solid and that is beyond contestation:

• Refractor - He has failed to hit the winners circle for 3 consecutive races, but that is because the competition is fierce, not because he has lost a step.  He has averaged a 117 PSR in those races.  We expect him to continue to be extremely productive well into 2017.
• Methy Bus - Has been in the money for 17 consecutive races.  He's a big time competitor who is always a threat to win any race.  With his expected long peak, he'll certainly be around for at least another season.
• Ettore Fieramosca - From off the scrap heap, he has become the epitome of consistency.  He's not a collector of big purses, but he hasn't finished less than 3rd for me since I've owned him and has 6 victories to his credit.  He probably won't return in 2017, but we're enjoying him now.
• House of M - This mare stacks up 100+ PSR's like firewood.  She is a moneymaker who I can count on to bring home a check every time she runs.  The breeding shed beckons in 2017, but she'll continue to run successfully for the remainder of this season.
• Shatterstar, Xtra Run, You Know My Name, Crossbones - Not marquee producers by any stretch of the imagination, these horses are honest racers nonetheless.  I can typically count on them to be in-the-money on most occasions.

My younger racers show tremendous potential:

• Astrapios - This colt could possibly be the preeminent 2-miler as soon as next season.  His recent 3:17.06 at Colonial Downs announced loud and clear that he is a force to be reckoned with.
• Crackerjack - Steady progress has culminated with a recent GR1 win at the Prix Lupin.  His deep lungs are still developing, making him as 12F candidate with the potential to go 16F in the future.
• Jack the Ripper - He looks extremely steady like his sire; he's probably more of a classic racer though.  His consistency is already a topic of conversation at Otsego Farms.  We expect him to be in-the-money in every race.
• War Factor Ten - Has finished 1st or 2nd in eight of eleven career races, and has only missed a check once.  He's not showing the blazing speed that we expected, but certainly has a nose for the wire.
• Xtra Gold - We purchased this filly from Glenmore Park for a cool $4M, not only for her considerable racing skills, but for her future as a broodmare.  She is fast, and consistent, and a winner.  Gotta love that combination.
• French Twist - This 2yo colt has shown incredible poise and speed by winning his first two starts in very crowded fields.  His raw tools and other intrinsic abilities bode well for the future.

I believe that 10 of these horses will be back for 2017, and with others that are still maturing, I feel that I'll be in good hands next season.

Now, I just need my lookouts to keep a weather-eye open for icebergs. 

Hello?...what is that off the starboard bow, Mate?