I've always found it amusing when the new foal's AR's come out. Back in the day, it could get to be a bit over the top. We would seem to have foal crops with approximately 50 Kentucky Derby winners. Two dozen Triple Crown winners. Hundreds of Eclipse winners. It really was pretty funny. Especially for someone that typically looks over my entire crop for a few minutes and then completely forgets about them until they're ready to race.
I don't have anything against AR's. They are a guide. A tool that, when properly utilized, can be helpful. They are definitely not gospel though. As far as being able to look at one and predict a good racer from a bad one? Good luck with that! I could post the AR's of Thunder Arctic and a few of his sons (Trail Finder, Rolling Thunder, Cyberstar, Tsunami, etc...) and ask people to tell me which AR is the Kentucky Derby winner. I highly doubt that everyone would get it right.
I was warned off of purchasing one of the most successful horses that ever raced for my stable because he had the "worst AR I've ever seen". It would be easy enough to find a horse with "an awesome AR" that ended up doing nothing on the track. It might actually be a fun game, guess the horse by the AR. Might have to look into that at some point.
When Jim recently used this blog to introduce the world to the newest love of his life, She Bangs, it got me to thinking on the subject of AR's. What would the perfect AR look like for me? Can I somehow put numbers to this? (Well, duh!) Which of my foals ends up "looking" the best? Will I end up wanting to declare my love for all to know?
So, how to start? I went through each line of the current AR's and decided which line I'd most want to see. That gave me my "perfect AR". (Obviously, this is very subjective and everyone's idea of the perfect AR won't be the same). A perfect score on a test is 100, so I went with that number. Then I went through my "perfect AR" and assigned point values to each individual line so that the point total was 100. After that, point values had to be assigned for every possible line that could show up in an AR. Whew! All that was left was to go through my crop of 29 foals and figure out how they did. My best foal turned out to have a score of 78. And my worst foal checked in at 29!
Here's my best...
| RocketFromTheCrypt (2017), 16.3 hand bay colt |
| By Rocket out of Nightwatch by Dansilver |
| This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3). |
| This horse will enjoy a long peak performance time, several racing seasons. |
| This horse prefers hard dirt. |
| This horse prefers soft dirt. |
| This horse is ok in mud. |
| This horse is good on hard turf. |
| This horse is ok on soft turf. |
| This horse is of average soundness. |
| This horse has average ratability. |
| This horse usually comes from midpack. |
| This horse accelerates like a bullet! |
| This horse breaks well out of the gate. |
| This horse has good speed. Could set records. |
| This horse appears to be primarily a miler. |
The worst...
| In The Clear (2017), 16.2 hand chestnut colt |
| By Brilliant Risk out of Shrieking Cat by Celtic Cat |
| This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4). |
| This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season. |
| This horse is ok on hard dirt. |
| This horse is ok on soft dirt. |
| This horse prefers mud. |
| This horse is good on hard turf. |
| This horse prefers soft turf. |
| This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries. |
| This horse has average ratability. |
| This horse usually comes from far back. |
| This horse has poor acceleration. |
| This horse is a slow starter out of the gate. |
| This horse has average speed. |
| This horse likes a lot of distance. |
Come back in a few years and we'll see how they turned out. Or I could always go back a few years and see how those crops are faring...
Oh yeah, if you're curious, She Bangs scored a 67 and would've been fifth in my crop. And no, I'm not going to declare my love.
4 comments:
Fascinating.
I know it's not wise to take on DJ when it comes to the numbers, but I'm afraid I have to in this case.
In his system, He rates RocketFromTheCrypt as his best foal with a score of 78. Then compares that to my filly, She Bangs, who rated as just a 67.
I've looked over the two AR's and I can't see how RFTC scores better.
Case in point...
They both mature early and have long careers.
On their preferred surface they rate as Prefer/Prefer/OK and Good/Prefer/Good. Seems even to me. She Bangs must get low scores for not liking Turf, but I don't see how that should count against her since she won't run on it.
She Bangs is healthier.
Ratability, Running Style, and Acceleration are all the same.
RFTC breaks better, but he's a sprinter/miler type where that is more important. She Bangs has average break speed which is OK on a horse who likes a lot of distance like she does.
They both have good speed.
Hmmm... I don't see any significant difference in these horses based on the type of runners they are.
Jim,
The title of the article wasn't meant as a reference to RFTC vs. She Bangs. It's more of a general feeling I've gotten over the years when people first get their AR's and some of the comments made that amuse me. Sorry if it came off as a shot at She Bangs.
As I mentioned in the article, my ratings on this are purely subjective and would be different for each person that tries it. I didn't go into it trying to make any one horse in my barn look better than another. The numbers were based on the things that I want to see in an AR. I just did She Bangs as a fun little add-on.
Just as a note, Prefer on hard dirt was the second most points a horse could get based on what I want to see. And, that's primarily a function of strictly racing in North America. If She Bangs had a prefer in that category, she becomes a 73 and would've been my 2nd foal.
Hahaha...I didn't take it as a shot at She Bangs DJ. I was just stirring the pot like I always do.
I loved the article and appreciated the fact that you threw her in there to give the score some perspective.
Keep up the good work please. :)
I shall try! It's funny, I wrote the whole thing and had no title for it. That one sort of hit me after I read over it a few times. After it had been posted and I looked at it up top, I thought that it might not be such a good title as it could be taken the wrong way. It's all good though.
By the way, I'm getting close to having done that new thing that I mentioned to you before. (A little teaser for any who may be following along out there.)
Post a Comment