AR says you like distance, why aren't you cooperating?

First things first... when you go into the race files, the line of horse ratings starts like this:

Trophy,Trophy, 75 , 88 , 91 , 70 , 9730.087 , 7667.732 , 1060

Gate Speed - 75

Early speed - 88

Top Speed - 91

Stamina - 70

Kicks - 1060

I haven't any idea what the rest of the data is down the line.  I have been meaning to look into it but haven'y found the time yet.

These rating usually fall into these ranges.  They may even trend higher or lower, but I have not seen anything beyond these ranges.

Gate speed - 58 to 84

Anything below 70 is a pretty slow starter.  Numbers above 80 are very fast starters.  Obviously is is best to be a fast starter if you are a sprinter.  All the speed in the world will not help a sprinter with a 62 gate speed.  A lower gate speed is less critical for a stayer, but there are still combinations that will cripple a distance horse also.  For instance, a stayer who is an extremely slow starter that likes to run on-lead is a bad combo.  He'll kill himself trying to get the lead and wither at the end, especially if he also has poor acceleration.

Early Speed - 82 to 94

Common sense dictates that higher is better.  A horse who is a poor starter who also has poor early speed may find himself out of contention in the first furlong.  Optimally, sprinters will be over 90 here, preferably 92 or higher. I have seen successful distance horses with an 85 in this spot, although 86 or 87 is more typical.

Top Speed - 84 to 94

Same as Early Speed, but more important because the horse will presumably use this rating for a greater percentage of the race.  Top sprinters will check in at 93 or 94, Milers 91 or 92, Classics around 89 or 90, and Stayers at 87 to 88.  Of course there are always exceptions to these rules based on the other attributes the horse does or does not possess.  For instance, Ton of Luck was very successful as a miler with numbers of 80, 90, 90, 69, 1035.  Because of his exceptional kick rating, he was able to compete against and beat slightly faster horses.

Stamina - 64 to 75

Generally speaking:

64-66  SPRINTER

67-69  MILER

70-71  CLASSIC

72-75  DISTANCE

As I said in an article in my blog many moons ago, these ratings are the first step in determining your horses distance ability.  Depending on the aggregate effect of all of their basic and miscellaneous ratings, horses can and do thrive in categories one step removed in each direction.  Going beyond that is virtually impossible.  For instance, a horse with a 65 stamina is not going to compete in Classic races.  Ever.

Kick - 400 to 1250

In my opinion, this rating determines the horses staying power at the end of a race.  The higher this number is, the better, regardless if you are a sprinter, stayer, or anywhere in between.  An abnormally low kick rating, say under 500, is an extreme liability.

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All of these numbers can vary a little bit from race to race depending on rest and other factors.  But, they are generally fairly static once a horse reaches maturity.  Do not expect a 4yo horse that has been tracking with a 67 stamina to suddenly improve to a 70.  It will not happen.

Determining what kind of horse you have on your hands can take time.  By looking at race files by the hundreds you will start to get the flavor of what makes some horses great and others horrible.  

At his peak, when War Machine won the Dubai World Cup in 2006, his numbers were 75, 89, 91, 71, 975.  This is a horse who had the speed of a miler and the stamina of a stayer... little wonder why he blew away his competition in 2006.

A giant among sprinters was Run MIssy Run.  When he won the 2010 Breeders Cup Sprint, his numbers were 76, 93, 94, 67, 900.  Loads of speed and a finishing kick that said adios to competitors at the wire were the reasons that he was so dominating.

It doesn't take a genius to see why these horses were titans in their day.  For most horses though, you have to consider a little more deeply and combine that with the info you can glean from the AR.  In this way you can make a reasonable assessment of the horses abilities, liabilities, and prospects.

In his second race as a 2yo, Battlestar had numbers of 78, 89, 90, 71, 1001.  I knew at that moment, by looking at this immature horse with those colossal numbers, that I had a monster on my hands.  I had to temper my expectations a bit because of his surface pickiness, but I knew he was destined for great achievements.  He rewarded my patience by winning the World Cup this year. 

I'm sure any of you could have ascertained that Battlestar was worth keeping.  That is not the point.  The point is that you should be analyzing your own horses and their strengths and weaknesses.  By doing this, you will stop trying to drive a square peg into a round hole like I have seen happen so many times.

There was a 6F race for 2yo's this weekend and I took a look at the top four finishers out of curiosity.  Here is how they stacked up in order if finish:

Shadowfax  74, 90, 90, 68, 835

Categorise  74, 91, 93, 66, 493

Commando ACOG  72, 89, 89, 70, 684

Mogul  76, 91, 92, 66, 443

What I envision here is that Shadowfax and Commando ACOG are not gonna be sprinters.  They did well in this race because they have stamina and kick ratings that are on the high side for 2yo horses. Their stamina and kick rating are not going to go down and their speed is not going to rise appreciably; meaning that after age 2, they are not gonna have a lot of success at the sprinting game.

Conversely, Categorise and Mogul are sprinters and they will remain sprinters.  Their speed ratings are very high for young horses and they may yet improve a notch or two, and that means that their stamina ratings are destined to stay in the sprinter, possibly miler range.

The reason I know this, is that the total of the top speed and stamina rating will usually not exceed 161.  It has happened on occasion, temporarily, when all of the stars line up perfectly for a horse in a given race.  But 161 is the theoretical combined limit of these two ratings.  So, if Mogul increases his speed at maturity to 94, the highest his stamina will see is 67.  Get it?  He is a sprinter.  Hopefully, his kick will get a little higher or he will be a sprinter who is limited to 6 furlongs.

OK... That is a crash course.  Use this info as you will.  If you have any questions.  Let me know.