I downloaded the races then scanned the horse stats before looking at the results. I was trying to determine what to expect just by looking at speed and stamina ratings. One race in particular was pretty easy to handicap.
It was a 12F Allowance for 2yo's, and looking at the horses stats, two things were ridiculously obvious:
- Pluto was gonna win.
- Secret Energy was gonna lose
It was a long race and Pluto had, by far, the top stamina number (73). Conversely, Secret Energy had, by far, the lowest stamina number (64).
I have no idea what Scott was thinking when he entered Secret Energy in this race. With stamina that low, the AR, for what it's worth, must say SPRINTER. If it doesn't, something is seriously haywire somewhere because that 64 stamina number is the lowest I've seen yet and it makes me believe this horse may be worthless at anything over 5 furlongs.
Of course it could be that Secret Energy is immature and possibly can aspire to an eventual stamina number of 66 or so when he grows up. But for now, that horse is a dead-nut sprinter and the 99-1 odds and last place finish in a 12F race was abso-freeking-lutely no surprise to me.
This second example may seem unbelievable to you, but I can assure you it is true. I perused the horse stats for the Fernhill Handicap and in my opinion the best three horses, in no particular order, were:
- Overdose
- Also Ran
- Mister Trump
I felt that Also Ran would be the winner based on the fact that he was much faster than any other horse in the race... although it looked like 8F might be a bit of a challenge for him and is probably the extent of his capabilities at this time.
Well, the horses finished 1 - Also Ran, 2 - Overdose, 3 - Mister Trump.
The other thing I could tell you was that Scotty's Cleo was probably gonna finish last...which he did. The horse is slow. At least now he is. Maybe he'll improve as he matures.
Interesting stuff. Don't you agree?
5 comments:
I find this kind of info fascinating. I'm surprised that no one has commented.
mate ill say when u open this info it gives you the winner already up the top!!! hehe. yes on what you have written on indeed it has finished like the stats say. but im sure if you digged deeper alot would also show that some horses with high stamina numbers etc... arent peforming like they should. for instance my horse emergency has a high speed number and stamina number but is very lucky to get 8f in fact he struggles above 7f he did win a weaker mile race as a 2yr old but tryed him in a weak 4 horse 8.5f race and he finished well off in 3rd. but agree it does give you some sort of indication.
steven
It's true that the depth of the game goes far beyond just speed and stamina numbers. But, I'm convinced that those numbers are very telling.
In Emergency's case, he looks like a classic "tweener" to me. His speed is good but not eye-popping and the same can be said for his stamina. Looking at his record, I'd say he has done very well with the ability he possesses.
whats a "tweener" mate? its say more a "hairy pig" but anyway he has done well in the lower ungraded races after showing some promise as a 2yr old winning a grade 2 and breaking 100 psr. but he will be sold soon as i need room for my up coming 20+ foal crop and he is no champion but a solid beginers horse. so your selling tombstone i know he was one of your fav's but spose when you are in a stall crunch there is no such as a fav horse i guess.
steven
Tweener is an term used primarily in basketball describing (for example) a player that may be too short to play one position and too tall to play another. He "in-between".
Emergency looks to have some speed, but not enough to really contend against top sprinters, and some stamina, but not enough to handle longer races. He's a tweener! :D
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