Observations on the 2014 Kentucky Derby Field

The 2014 Photo Finish Kentucky Derby will have a full field of 20 racers, and depending on how the trip goes for each horse, I figure there are probably about 12 horses who have a shot to win this race.

I checked the base stats that each entrant had in their last race and that data may be sufficient to draw some conclusions about this race.  I'm not gonna make any specific placing predictions mind you. Just observations such as:

Fastest Gate Speed: Ash Wednesday, General Beauregard.

The General has enough stamina to go the distance.  Ash Wednesday does not, so don't get stuck behind him when he starts to fade.

Fastest Early Speed: Spaceman

Fastest Top Speed: Spaceman

He's the quickest horse in the race, no doubt about that.  Lightning Sky's is a close second.  Spaceman is faster out of the gate so I expect him to be stalking early, then out front for a while.

Best Stamina: Pluto

He's a monster and would be my hands-down favorite for the Belmont.  The question is, does he have the speed for the 10F Derby?  He'll be roaring down the stretch; count on that.  Methy Bus, Missy's KD, and Nemesis also have plenty of lungs with Missy's KD being the slowest (by far) of the three.

Worst Stamina: Ash Wednesday, Lightning Sky's, Spaceman.

I have grave reservations about any of these three being able to handle 10F.  They may wreak havoc when they start to back up after 9F.  Better tell your jockey to go wide on the last turn.

Horses that will not win:

Ash Wednesday, Black Mirage, Lightning Sky's, Missy's KD, Spaceman, Troll Emblem.

Possible, but improbable:

General Beauregard, Honestly, Peridot, Tomahawk, Under My Feet, Wolfsbane.

Winner from this group:

Bubbles, Crossbones, Isca's Dawn, Methy Bus, Mongoose, Nemesis, Pluto, Street Fighter

A slow pace will favor Methy Bus, Nemesis, and Pluto.  A fast pace will favor Isca's Dawn.

Good luck to all.