2019 Kentucky Derby - Prediction

Handicapping normal, run-of-the-mill Photo Finish races isn't really that hard.  Most of the time, there is a horse who's ability stands above the rest, and conversely, there are usually many horses that clearly cannot win.

Races like the Kentucky Derby are not quite as easy because these horses have to meet minimum qualification standards; there will be no tomato cans that are in there strictly for the owners bragging rights.  Because of elevated quality level of all entrants in this race, there is a somewhat blurrier line of demarcation between the haves and have-nots.

In doing a cursory review of the entire field, no horse stands out as a clear favorite to me.

The Speed horses are Danny Boy and the fillies Affection, Jersey Shore, and Polar Princess.  The Stamina horses are Lapsus, Rico Suave, Twenty Four, and WWE Raw.

Fast starters are Danny Boy, Dipolar Bond, Polar Princess, and Rico Suave.  Slow starters are Californication and Lapsus.

Horses that may have a problem with 126 lbs are Commando ACOG, Danny Boy, Dipolar Bond, and Californication.  None of the fillies are susceptible to weight issues.

Several horses will be running on just 17 days rest, which could be telling.  They are Incubus, Jersey Shore, Twenty Four, WrestleMania, WWE Raw, and Californication.  Many of these horses ran recently in an effort to qualify for this race.  We shall see if that strategy has sapped their strength. Commando ACOG, Dipolar Bond, and Polar Princess will all operate at an acceptable, but less than ideal 24 days rest.

AFFECTION - I like the speed of this filly.  She's probably the fastest horse in the field, but she's a bit of a slow starter, so she might not get to use her early speed if she's bogged down back in the pack.  The fact that it's a smallish field will help her navigate to better use her speed.

CALIFORNICATION - This horse will certainly have to come from behind because he is the slowest starter in the field, plus his early speed is mediocre as well.  He's not gonna love the 126 lbs he'll be carrying either.  He does have sufficient stamina for 10F however.

COMMANDO ACOG - He's on a roll and would have to be considered one of the favorites.  He's not one of the fastest or one of the strongest, but he has a nice steady skill set that makes him very dangerous.  It's possible that he will be unable to handle the weight he'll get in this race.

DANNY BOY - He's a good starter and has speed, but his stamina is the worst in the field and his kick average kick will not offer much support.  He'll be in the mix for awhile, but won't be around for the excitement at the wire.

DIPOLAR BOND - This horse has sneaky good stats.  Nothing to blow you away, but solid across the board.  The only chink in the armor may be an inability to deal with a lot of weight, and that may explain why he has not broken his maiden yet.

INCUBUS - A slightly less talented version of Commando ACOG who has been gaining traction in his last couple of races.  Has no real weaknesses, but as mentioned earlier, will be coming into the Derby on short rest.

JERSEY SHORE - This filly is very similar to Affection except that her kick rating is quite a bit lower.  It's low enough to make me unsure about her ability to cover 10F, although she looked good over 9F in winning the Wood Memorial.

LAPSUS - Another slow starter who will trail the field for most of the race.  Excellent stamina, average kick, and one of the slower horses in the field.  He will hope to travel the rail in mid-pack, then rally down the stretch.  May not have enough at the end.

POLAR PRINCESS - A very consistent racer who has already shown her chops at 10F in winning the Revenge Stakes.  She's a quick starter with good speed.  It's possible she could jump out front and go wire-to-wire, but she was beaten by both Commando ACOG and Dipolar Bond at Santa Anita.

RICO SUAVE - One of the two slowest horses in this race in terms of top speed, but also one of only two with a 73 stamina rating.  He's fast out of the gate, so he should be in the mix early.  He'll slip back a bit behind the faster horses, but will be there at the end.

TWENTY FOUR - Slowish out of the gate plus poor early speed will have Twenty Four in the back third for most of the race.  He should make a push towards the end, but he's not fast enough to make a difference.  Probably a better bet in the Belmont.

WRESTLEMANIA - A talented filly who has a pretty strong overall game, but not strong enough to win this race.  If she gets the right kind of trip, she could raise some eyebrows, but more than likely she'll finish down the line.

WWE RAW - The other horse with the 73 stamina rating.  Very strong and another who may shine in the Belmont if he has any gas left in the tank.  Has had a busy schedule.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 4th race in 55 days; a bill that may come due in the last few furlongs of this race.

PREDICTION:

I feel that there are 8 horses that have a shot at hitting the board in this race.  For various reasons, I would eliminate Californication, Danny Boy, Jersey Shore, Twenty Four, and WrestleMania.

Lapsus is going to fall too far behind to catch the speed horses in this race, so he's also out.  Rico Suave and WWE Raw are very similar and Rico smashed him head-to-head twice, most recently in the GalleryFurniture.com race, so WWE Raw is out.  Thus we are down to six.

Seems to me that Affection and Commando ACOG are definitely gonna hit the board.  So, four horses are left: Dipolar Bond, Incubus, Polar Princess, and Rico Suave.

I'd take Dipolar Bond over Incubus and Polar Princess over Rico Suave, so we are down to one final choice.  I would expect Polar Princess to beat Dipolar Bond  because of her better ability to handle the weight.

WIN: Affection

PLACE: Commando ACOG

SHOW: Polar Princess

I think that Rico Suave has the best bet to crack that trio.  But, as mentioned earlier, this is a very tough race to call and I would not be surprised if any of my top eight were to emerge victorious.

Good luck to all.