Two-year old House of M may make her debut this weekend and I haven't got a clue what to expect.
Out of Classical Music by War Machine, the filly has a very strong AR, but what does that really tell you? Nothing, that's what. Here it is:
House of M (2011), 15.2 hand chestnut filly
By War Machine out of Classical Music by Black Tie Affair
This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse is ok on hard turf.
This horse is poor on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse likes a lot of distance.
She likes dirt and distance. Exactly what I expect and hope for from a foal by War Machine. But this tells me nothing about her real potential. Is she fast or slow? Does she have courage? What is her best distance?
As I said on the forum, by the time a horse is a 2yo, we should know more than she likes dirt and distance. As someone said, if that's all my trainer can tell me after 12 months of day-to-day training, he's fired!
How about something like this for a slightly modified AR?
House of M (2011), 15.2 hand chestnut filly
By War Machine out of Classical Music by Black Tie Affair
Mature quickly.
Average performance peak.
Prefers hard dirt.
Prefers soft dirt.
Good in mud.
OK on hard turf.
Poor on soft turf.
Rest need: Machine
Top speed rating of 90.
Best at 10 furlongs.
Potential: 82
The last rating is purely fictitious. It would be nice if there was a mathematical formula whereby an amalgamation of PF data is condensed into a single number that would try to predict the racing potential of a given horse. It could be done, I'm sure. You'd have to take into account, speed, courage, durability, consistancy, and all the other salient attributes. Deductions would have to be factored in for things like poor break speed for sprinters, poor acceleration, and injury potential. I have no doubt that one of our gifted PF participants could come up with something that would suffice.
This is just a quick example off the top of my head. The truth is, we need something better, AR-wise, than we have now. Anyone else have any ideas?
6 comments:
I thught you weren't racing this month?
LOL. I actually said my horses weren't running until June. I did jump the gun and put in House of M on May 31st. There is a good chance I'll scratch her though if the field gets too big.
Another good idea Sir Jim ( everytime i type that i think of mah foal )... If my trainer told me after 2 years of training absoultely nothing id be pissed ... I wouldnt care about the rest or speed but id like to know a bit more about mah horse than we currently get ... Its silly how we have to just have blind faith that our 2yo`s can run early on ... Ive always said we need trials but i guess that will never happen
Foxie
Trials probably aren't something that is possible within the confines of PF. Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I personally like the idea of Laurie giving the complete HRF data on each horse to it's owner. That would be the total info gleaned from 2 years. Make with it what you will...
An Equifax number or some other sustainable index of a horse's potential, man oh man, do I ever like that idea. You do understand that in real life those figures are made up of actual performances, factored breedings, past performance, wishful thinking and Cinderella's tears, don't you?
Seriously, we have the PSRs and the ARs, past performance, breeding and not much else. By looking at some of the races in the history of the game, I imagine that even the odds are made up from thin air.
Still, you have a very good idea here, sir.
Well, I wish I could take credit for it Dev, but it's actually something I found when I was reading the rules on the new HRF on-line game.
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