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Wednesday, April 08, 2015

What did I learn last season?

After several months off, most of us probably have forgotten the particular nuances of each horse.  

How many days off is optimum for this filly?  What is my colt's pet distance?  What early season races did I have earmarked?  Was this mare gonna try for longer distances or shorter?  Did she fade in that last half furlong at 9, or didn't she?  Can't remember...

Sometimes you develop a strategy that just kinda evolves in your head and during the season, it's easy to remember these plans from week to week.  After 4 months off though, things get a little hazy, don't they?

In the old days, I would just look at the horses race record and see what kind of placings and PSR's they put up at particular distances, then follow the plan.  If a horse hoisted a 105 at 8F, I would assume that was pretty good and I'd do it again.  Nowadays, I spend more time looking at the horses attribute numbers and making my entry decisions based on those.  I can look at a horse and perhaps see that the previous 105 PSR was hollow and not a sustainable result at that distance.

Because I feel the numbers are all important, I record them on a spreadsheet after every race.  While making my entries, I crosscheck against the attribute numbers to see if I'm still on the right track.

I acquired Na'vi from Foxies Lodge because I admired the horse and his impeccable breeding.  He had done fairly well at 16F with four consecutive 2nd place finishes.  If I was unfamiliar or uninterested in his base numbers, I might be inclined to keep running him at two miles, after all PSR's of 102, 102, 103,and 98 plus finishing 2nd every time is encouraging, right?  Except, his Stamina number is 70.  His outstanding Kick has kept him competitive at 16F, but he's not a 2-miler.  I'm not really sure exactly what he is because his speed is a little low for a classic style racer, but I know he's not a 2-miler.  He'll never beat a horse like Le Chiffre or Jackhammer at 16F.  No way.

The point of this ramble is that keeping track of the numbers for each horse, race after race, makes entry decisions much easier, and you don't have to remember as much stuff.  It takes some effort though, and many of you will not want to take the time.  That's cool.  It just makes things a little easier for guys like me...

Let's race!


1 comment:

Unknown said...

I don't even want to think about how many PF related spreadsheets that I have...