I found it interesting that there were only 9 entries in this lucrative 3yo race. Out of curiosity, I checked the field sizes for every season it has been run... 6, 4, 4, 8, 8, 7, 7, 9! So, this is actually the largest field since the inaugural year. That first race was won, by the way, by Nightwing's most prolific offspring, Daredevil.
I wonder why such a monstrously rewarding race has such small fields? Well that is a topic for another time...
The 2019 field could actually be a little smaller because there are two horses entered who have little hope in this race.
Astro Pop from Victorian Racing Stables is the better of the two by a wide margin, but still has no chance to hit the money in this race. His stamina and kick are both very suspect, and based on his racing history, I wonder why his connections ever even considered throwing this entry fee right out the window, because that is exactly what they did.
But as bad as that decision was, Spartan Racing Stables takes the cake with the Tiny Monsters entry. This horse has a 99.9% probability of coming in last place and if that doesn't happen, I will be dumbfounded. He would be lucky to make 8F with dignity, let alone 12F. He finished last in the 12.5F Victoria Derby and was almost 100 lengths off the lead. Pure folly and Ryan knows that...
Hong Kong from Port Pirie, Shadow Walker from Foxies Lodge, and Pendfold's Vocal Enforcer are all perfectly reasonable entries, but I see them finishing in the middle of the pack, with Vocal Enforcer being at the bottom of the three.
The winner will come from this group:
- Atonement - Snowbank
- Infinity World - Otsego Farms
- Luminare - Olmo Dorato
- Overdue - FDL Lodge
The filly, Overdue, is riding a 4-race winning streak, and the last one was at 12F in the Japanese Oaks. She is the fastest horse in this race, but I still wonder about her ability to do 12F against the colts. For that reason, I suspect she won't win, but I do expect her to be very competitive. If one of the four listed above were to fall out of contention, I would guess it would be Overdue, at the hands of Shadow Walker.
Atonement is scary because of his enormous stamina rating. If he gets a clean run, he could easily win this race.
Infinity World has a nice mix of stayer-type speed and stamina. He is a notoriously slow starter, but there are only a couple horses that have more speed, and neither is optimal at 12F.
Luminare is very similar to Infinity World in ability. They met at the Aoba Sho a month ago and the Otsego colt won by 2.4L. Vocal Enforcer finished 3rd in that race.
I'm not going to make a prediction in this race other than to say that Atonement, Infinity World, and Luminare will finish in the top 3. Overdue and Shadow Walker would be my top two choices to crack that group if the trip so dictates.
Good luck to all.
5 comments:
I was considering running Bolombolo in the race, but Infinity World and Luminare were too good for him last start in the Aoba Sho. I think that race will be the best form reference for the Derby, but I'd be very wary of Overdue if I had a runner in the race. She's given my gun filly a bath in two races now. She may get close on class alone. Top race!
A nice field but you guys are lucky Kiparis Duel Wield couldn't take his place in this race as he is in fine form and was impressive in the Italian Derby...
I think OVERDUE is a massive chance I thought she would be suspect at 12f but her win in the Oaks was impressive its not like she raced in a lower graded race she beat josh's filly who I thought being by Memcay would beat her over 12 and she beat her by almost 6 lengths though I really think Atonement is a massive danger to her and Infinity World rounds out the top 3 chances I really cant see anything outside this 3 finish in the top 3...
Good luck all
Overdue is certainly capable enough, but she sure looks more like a 10F horse to me. She performed well at 12F in her last race, but her ability could be overreaching because of her overall class, like Josh suggested. We'll see if she is strong enough to hold off the boys.
Would have been nice to see KDW in this race. He would have muddied the waters considerably.
Well, I got the part about Timy Monsters and Astro Pop right. And, I got two correct of the top three I predicted. I knew Hong Kong was legit, but I didn't think he'd pull this race out. Well done! I was also right about Overdue being overdone at 12F. Luminare and Shadow Walker did poorer than I expected. All in all, I'd give myself a "B"...
Yeah overdue ran well considering she can run 12f maybe against the fillys but overall still held on very well.... Yeah Hong Kong was a surprise he ran last in a cox plate over 10f then comes out and wins a 12f derby in real life his trainer would of been hauled in front of the stewards wanting to know how he turned his form around lol.... But cant wait to unleash KDW in the English Version.... after a quiet week im looking forward to trying to bounce back next week
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