My prediction was:
- Affection
- Commando ACOG
- Polar Princess
I mentioned that if there was one horse who who crack this triumvirate, it would be Rico Suave.
Official order of finish:
- Affection
- Rico Suave
- Commando ACOG
That seems like a success to me.
Affection won the race easily, which is what I expected. She got in the clear early, which was the only concern I had, then let her speed dictate.
Rico Suave was stalking and waiting for an opportunity to let his exceptional stamina kick in. He finished a strong second, but never challenged Affection.
Commando ACOG ran a courageous race, but wasn't firing at his usual level. In spite of what his connections say, I think the weight and shortish rest were both factors. He was clearly spent at the finish and if the race had gone another 1/2 furlong, Lapsus would have caught him.
Lapsus had a better than usual start and was initially only 8 lengths off the lead, He did slip to 11 lengths back, but was close enough to mount his typical charge to get into the money.
Polar Princess, who I tabbed for 3rd, faded a bit at the end and finished 5th.
I said that none of the follwing had a shot: Californication, Danny Boy, Jersey Shore, Twenty Four, and WrestleMania. They finished 6th, 9th, 8th, 7th, and 12th.
I thought both Dipolar Bond and Incubus would miss the money, but I didn't expect them to finish so far down the line. In the case of Incubus, it was undoubtedly lack of rest.
My call on WWE Raw was right on target. I said " The Kentucky Derby will be his 4th race in 55 days; a bill that may come due in the last few furlongs of this race." He went from 6th to 13th in the final 2 furlongs. Saw that coming!
Twenty Four made his late push like I thought he would, but it wasn't enough, like I knew it wouldn't be.
I had questions about Jersey Shore making 10F. I think those were answered.
That was fun! Let's do it again!
3 comments:
Always was going to be Affection winning the race , the other 3yos are not going to be world beaters by any stretch of the imagination
Would like to have seen Jibril in the race would of been a better race as he pushed her in the UAE Derby to 3/4L and could have beaten her . I think that table will be turned if Affection tries for the Triple Crown in Belmont though which I think she will try
Markos
Always going to be Affection winning the race? Easy to say, now that it's over. :)
I can't speak for all of the 3YO's in that race, but I have high hopes for Rico Suave and Lapsus. Commando ACOG is also a pretty darn good prospect... so I guess it all depends on your definition of what a world beater is.
Jibril put up a sparkling time in the UAE Derby, no question about that, but don't be fooled... he didn't push Affection much at all. She was at effort level three down the stretch. She only pushed it up to 4, then 5 when she absolutely had to. If she had run at full tilt for the last furlong, she would have won by 4-5 lengths.
I do agree though that the Belmont will be out of her reach. I think either of my guys could beat her at 12F, and Jibril would crush her at that distance.
Jibril would not of beaten Affection no 3yr old in the game would of beaten her she won with plenty up her sleeve and it was the same in Dubai Jibril wont beat affection at 10f or under but would beat her over 12f...
the bottom half of the field might not be world beaters but Lapsus,Rico Suave,Polar princess and commando acog are decent horses and Incubus as well just was tired from running in the bluegrass..
But yes you hcp'd the race well jim I knew commando wouldn't win after 1/2 furlong when he went back instead of his usual pattern of leading/stalking though even if he did lead he wouldn't of beaten Affection she just had to much and maybe the rest did com back to bite me but im happy I won the Santa Anita derby and Florida Derbys with him and will give him a nice rest before the Haskell/Travers stakes..
Steven
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