Why does this horse have a hold on me?

I can't quite put my finger on the reason why, but Tombstone has wormed his way into my heart and I'm finding it increasingly difficult to consider parting with him, even though my head is demanding it.

He has been less than stellar as a racer thus far, compiling a career record of 13-0-3-0. But he has shown some signs of life lately with consecutive 2nd place finishes.

His highest PSR is 95. In fact, that is the only time he has gone above 90. And yet, his surface and distance versatility are very admirable and hint at future success. Plus, the fact that his sire Vampirical was something of a late bloomer bodes well for Tombstone down the road.

The bottom line is, in spite of a pressing need to eliminate horses and provide much needed stall space for foals, I don't think Tombstone will be sacrificed. I like him and I have confidence that he will improve. He stays.

Be reasonable. Do it my way.

This is a transcript of a recent telephone conversation between Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber and another stable owner (SO) who shall remain unidentified.

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

JW: Hello. This is Jim Webber speaking.


SO: Hi Jim, this is **** *****. Have you got a few minutes to talk?


JW: Sure ****. I've gotta get down to the training barn by 2:30 to check on Nebula, but I can spare a few minutes. What's on your mind?


SO: There has been a formal complaint lodged against Otsego Farms for an unauthorized horse purchase last season. I got wind of it and thought I'd give you a heads-up.


JW: What the f*** are you talking about?


SO: You made a private offer and bought *** directly from the owner when he was concurrently for sale via auction.


JW: Yeah. So what? Is that illegal?


SO: Well, no. Of course not.


JW: Then what is the problem?


SO: Evidently, some owners feel that you and others who employ this tactic are acting unethically. They feel that by shortcutting the auction, you are gaining an unfair advantage. Furthermore, they feel that this strategy, when employed by a veteran stable, may exacerbate the feelings of inferiority that some new stables experience.


JW: You're not serious.


SO: Ummm...yes I am.


JW: Hmmm. Well that certainly makes one think. How about this as a compromise? I'll keep doing exactly what I want, and you can tell them to *** ****.

END OF TRANSCRIPT

Stop, Hammer time?

Otsego Farms is overdue for a bona fide superstar. We're hoping that long wait will end in 2013 with the introduction of War Hammer.

The imposing 17hh light gray colt will debut for Otsego Farms next season and it won't be a moment to soon for our liking. He's out of Shattered Record, who has produced a couple of talented horses in her first two tries, Shatterstar and Starfire. Both of whom were sired by Nightwing.

War Hammer as hinted by his name, was sired by the incomparable War Machine. This has considerably raised the bar on expectations. He's been a little slow to mature, so he may not hit the track until very late next year, but we expect at least a couple of tuneups before turning him fully loose in the 2014 season.

War Hammer (2011), 17 hand light gray colt
By War Machine out of Shattered Record by Black Shatter

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse dislikes soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Nightwing AR revealed!

In light of the recent release of the War Machine AR, Otsego Farms connections have decided to follow suit with Nightwing.

Dubbed by Otsego trainers as "The Horse without Fear" and "The Iron Horse", Nightwing ran 46 career races in 3 seasons, and never ran a race that wasn't a GR1 or a GR2.

He was a classic stayer who started slow and had a fierce finishing kick. In the breeding shed, he is most notable as the sire of the Bonai superstar, Daredevil.

Nightwing, 17.2 hand bay colt
By Gander out of Mrs Bently by Euclase

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early, ready for the Derby.
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse will be near peak potential for the Derby.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse doesn't like a stretch duel. May not fight to keep the lead at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace.
This horse has average curve handling abilities.
This horse doesn't do more work than it has to to win. Once it gets the lead, it eases up.
This horse handles traffic ok.
This horse has consistency problems. Doesn't always meet expectations.
This horse is a machine! Recovers quickly from fatigue and ready to race again.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse stalks the pace.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse is a slow starter out of the gate.
This horse has average speed.
Handles 1 1/4mi to 2mi, best distance 2mi.

Ummm.... That horse looks awful strong.

The Horse Racing Fantasy game, which is the engine for Photo Finish, rates a horses Speed and Stamina in the following manner:

EXCELLENT
VERY GOOD
GOOD
FAIR
POOR

As far as speed goes, you see a lot of Excellent ratings and many of the horses with "Excellent" speed are unsuccessful as racers. There are just too many other factors that go into the makeup of a thoroughbred racer. Excellent speed, in and of itself, is not enough. Remember Atmospheric Buzz? He had Excellent speed.

Excellent stamina however, is a completely different story. It is a very rare commodity and virtually guarantees a successful career. Just today, Mike of Noble Farms pointed out that there are currently only four active horses in PF that possess Excellent stamina. Three of them are:

Color of Fame
Ton Of Luck
Heat Seeker

They are all top-tier talents. Their success is obviously attributable in large part to their outstanding stamina.

Well, step aside gentlemen. There is a new sheriff in town.

Say hello to an up-and-coming 2yo by the name of Gradient (Memcay x Perfect Bell) that has that elusive Excellent stamina rating. He is gonna be a beast. Bet the farm on it.

Bred by Rainbow, this 17.1h black beauty has a current record of 3-1-1-1, and has gotten better in each race as the distance has lengthened. In his last race, an 11 furlong affair at Shenandoah Downs, he finished 1st in a field of 15 while posting a 108 PSR and setting a track record.

This guy is the Incredible Hulk and he's about to go on a rampage...

Let's all try to get real, OK?

Four races in 31 days.

If this particular horse does not scratch this weekend, it'll be her fourth race in 31 days.

My position as Photo Finish Chief Bully-Boy and Lord High Executioner demands that I address this breach of protocol. What would make a stable owner put such unreasonable demands on one of their horses?

It's not a new stable, so it can't be ignorance. In fact, the perpetrator is the owner of one of our most renowned stables, effectively ruling out poor management as well.

It really can't be greed since this stable has funds far exceeding my own, and I'm not exactly a pauper.

That leaves arrogance.

Do small strategies that most stables try to employ such as giving a horse adequate rest, using common sense, and adhering to some semblance of reality simply not apply in this stables case?

Sometimes these bad decisions come back to haunt you...

First time ever! War Machine AR published.

Dubai Juvenile. Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Dubai World Cup. Kentucky Derby. Preakness Stakes. Belmont Stakes. Breeder's Cup Classic.

He won them all, cementing his place among the Photo Finish all-time greats.

Now, for the first time, War Machine's AR is being made public...

War Machine, 15.3 hand chestnut colt
By Curule out of Mystic Lady by Thunder Gulch

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early, ready for the Derby.
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing season.
This horse will be near peak potential for the Derby.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse doesn't like a stretch duel. May not fight to keep the lead at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse holds its position well in curves.
This horse cruises once it has the lead.
This horse handles traffic ok.
This horse has consistency problems. Doesn't always meet expectations.
This horse recovers fairly quickly between races.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse is flexible; can run on lead, stalk, or come from behind.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse has average speed out of the gate.
This horse has average speed.
Handles 1 1/4mi to 2mi, best distance 2mi.

'Ware Lubbers. Crossbones will soon sail into these waters...

His sire is the famed router Nightwing. His dam In Spirit, was also a router and has the blood of Bellbuster and Housebuster flowing in her veins.

He'll run on dirt or turf and he has inherited his fathers tremendous health and resiliency. It looks like he'll run primarily at classic distances.

He's early to mature, so you'll see him in the Spring of 2013.

His name is Crossbones, and he'll see you all to Davy Jones.

PROBLEM: Need more stall space. SOLUTION: Buy more horses?

With my commitment to breeding more foals, I have also made a commitment to tighten up my stall management.

My first act under the new tight-stall regime is.....BUY MORE HORSES!

OK. I admit it. I'm weak.

I can swear that I won't do buy another horse and then BANG! The first horse I covet I buy anyway.

It happen last week with 2yo Leaning Tower. In a previous post I explained my rationale for buying him.

Today it was Sovereign Hill. She is a handsome weaning filly by Park Lane out of Excellent Deal. I have always liked Park Lane from back in my early PF days and Excellent Deal, while not a star by any means, has produced a very successful runner by the name of Lord Fauntleroy, owned by Squirrel Racing.

So, I liked the cut of this fillies jib, and when I saw the price was just $1000, I just about had a seizure trying to hit the BUY NOW button before someone else got her.

That's it. I'm not buying another horse this season. I'm resolute on this matter!

Pssst! Hey Cecil, you wanna sell Ton Of Luck?

Did you get the memo that mediocrity will not be tolerated?

I used to breed sparingly. One or two foals a year. That was it.

I guess I was too impatient to commit to breeding. I didn't want to wait the 2 or more seasons it takes to get a horse to the track. So, I dabbled a bit in breeding and simply bought ready-to-race horses to fill my string.

Sometime in the midst of my 10 seasons I've found that breeding is much more fulfilling. And, as a result, I'm committing to it wholeheartedly.

It's more fulfilling in two ways. First, it is intrinsically more satisfying to have a successful horse if you've bred it yourself. I think everyone will agree with that. Second, it's hard to buy good, unraced young horses. Sometimes you get lucky and find a Heat Seeker or a War Machine, but most of the time breeders keep the top prospects and sell the rest, often after the horse has demonstrated their mediocrity in a handful of races.

So, my new business plan will be to breed at least 10 new foals a year, utilizing War Machine as the primary stud. Nightwing and Union Jack will contribute to a somewhat lesser degree. Top-quality guest studs will fill in as necessary. This year, Jenny's My Gal and Run Missy Run will be employed. Also, former Otsego standout Doomsday will be used.

Because I have just 45 stalls at the moment, and have decided that 50 will be the upper limit of my size, I will not be able to carry much in the way of veteran racers. So, the second part of my new business plan will be to utilize what I refer to as "The Foxie Rule".

This means that sometime late in the 2yo season and certainly by the mid-point of the 3yo season, I'll be selling off the horses that do not show very significant ability. Simple math will demand this strict stable culling.

Assume 50 stalls.
10 foals
10 yearlings
10 2yos
10 broodmares
3 studs

That leaves 7 horses at ages of three or older. Obviously tough decisions will have to be made and they will be. Because going forward, only excellence will be acceptable.

AR's - Are they worthless?

When I first started at PF, I loved studying my AR's. They were the real deal back in those days too, with triple the information we get now.

The only problem was realism. When a foal is born, it doesn't come out with a tag on it's neck saying "I have a mind of my own" or "I have average ratability". That kind of thing has to be figured out by looking at the parents, and by what you observe on the track.

Plus there was so much information that many owners were making snap decisions about horses and shipping them out unraced, based solely on what they determined to be a "bad AR".

After much discussion and debate, Laurie decided to streamline the AR with just enough information to guide you on the horse surface and distance preferences.

Now I'm wondering if they should be further condensed to just surface preferences, or perhaps eliminated entirely?

My reason for this line of thought is Zach Attack, the 3yo colt from Laurabelle Racing. This fellow has illustrious parents in War Machine and Azeri. With that sire and dam, you'd think the foal would prefer running in the 8-10 furlong range. However, his AR states that he is a sprinter and that thinking is further bolstered by the POOR stamina rating that is assigned by the HRF game.

Pointgiven Stables, the breeder and original owner, followed those recommendations judiciously, running Zach Attack strictly between 4 and 6 furlongs with very little success. This is not an indictment of Pointgiven, as he was simply playing with the cards that he thought he was dealt. Eventually, frustrated by a seeming lack of talent, Pointgiven sent Zach Attack to Pearly Gates Farm for $31,000.

Zack Attack continued to perform in a mostly lackadaisical manner until he was allowed to run a little more distance. He cranked out an 86 PSR at 8.5 furlongs, then followed that up with a 95 PSR at 9 furlongs in the Wood Memorial. Hmmm....

His continued improvement went on the shelf for a couple months as Pearly Gates closed up shop. Enter Laurabelle, who noticed the breeding and the improvement as the distances got longer. He bought Zach Attack for $10,000 and entered him in the 9 furlong Grade One Swaps Stakes. The rest, as they say, is history.

He won, and earned a cool $300,000.

A sprinter? I think not.

Tight market for top-quality mares

Recently on the PF Forum, Donny of Chiquita Lodge posted his desire to obtain a "top-class" broodmare, and his willingness to part with up to $5,000,000 in order to meet that objective.

By top-class and for that kind of money, I'm assuming he means someone of the Chatterbox - Promised Land - Flow Diagram - Scenic Sheba - Southern Charm variety. Even for $5M, it may be very tough to pry a mare of that ilk from it's current owner, unless you happen to be very friendly with someone who is about to leave the game or get out of the breeding business.

Fortunately, there is another slightly less celebrated level of broodmare which may be able to deliver quality foals nonetheless. That is the level of broodmare that Otsego Farms employs.

Oh, I have tried my hand at acquiring a super-mare. Perhaps I wasn't determined enough. Perhaps I was simply too cheap (Yeah, that's probably it). In any event, I've been unable to get one, so I've had to make do with mares I've raced, or bought off the rack.

I bred and raced Nova (Housebuster x Raging Fever) and she was extremely talented and on-paper, appears to be my best broodmare. With only $1.7M in earnings though, she is far off the pace of the super-mares, even though her overall PSR achievements are probably as good as any of them.

I've tried to improve my band of broodmares this year by getting quality mares at reasonable prices. A couple that I bought recently at relatively modest cost are Second Strike ($500K) and Ace Of Grace ($690K).

Second Strike specializes on dirt at the 8F-9F range. She has gone over 100 PSR 14 times at these distances and looks like a great match for War Machine in the breeding barn.

Ace Of Grace has legitimate 16F ability, having raced that distance 7 times, four of which went over 100 PSR. It looks to me that she can produce nice routers. Union Jack and Nightwing are future studs from Otsego Farms and I have hopes that she can visit the likes of Memcay, Thunder Arctic, and A Bus in the future as well.

These mares, along with Shattered Record, Affirm Gal, and In Spirit, form the core of my breeding operation.

Superstars when they raced? Nope. But thay are solid and fully capable of producing successful foals.

Could I spend $5M on a mare. Yes. Would I? Nope.

Did I mention that I'm Dutch on my mothers side?

2012 Stable Statistics YTD

My goal at Otsego Farms has always been to attain a 20% win ratio and a 50% on-the-board ratio. In 2012 I am substantially below my goal in both categories, currently tracking at 12% and 39%. That 10-0-0-0 week I recently had obviously dented my numbers a bit.

However, my 12/39 ratio's positively glow compared to some other stables who are having even tougher seasons than I am. The following stables have at least 50 starts and are currently avoiding the winners circle...

Elite Thoroughbreds, known primarily as a breeding stable, is currently at 3/35 in 66 races.

Spartan Racing Stables ratio's of 4/33 fully justifies his recent quotation of "My horses still suck".

Plugger Racing and The Raja Stables check in at 4/25 and 4/22 respectively.

4th Alarm Racing Stable has a miniscule 1% win ratio, but in spite of that has managed to get on-the-board at a 20% rate.

Hutton's Horse Haven has managed just 5 wins in 167 starts, resulting in ratio's of 3/15.

Whisperwood, another stable that admittedly specializes in breeding, has hit the board just 14 times in 113 races, resulting in feeble ratio's of 4/12.

And finally, the Grand Poo Bah of underperformance.... Endless Vista Stud Farm. With just 15 placings in 167 races and ratio's of 1/9, EV takes the top spot on the current list of bottomfeeders. In fairness however, EV is the last stop before the glue factory and all horses that have a glimmer of ability are poached as soon as possible.

At the other end of the spectrum, these stables are standing tall:

Hopeful Farm 29/65

Snowbank Farm 29/58

Bonai Farms 29/58

Foxies Lodge 25/72!

Under The Weeping Moon 25/53

Even though they have fewer than 50 races, these stables need to be recognized as well:

Sapphire Stables 27/63

Touchdown Farms 29/53

BunnyHill Stables 30!/52

Congratulations or condolences.

Random thoughts to get things rolling...

I saw 2yo Leaning Tower (Troll Tower x Monsoon) on the sale board for a scant $10K and quickly bought him. Steven of Golden Acres commented, "he is always 2nd or 3rd favorite on odds in his three runs but he hasn't shown me anything". True, but the sire is strong, I like, and own the dam Monsoon (who produced the late bloomer Sabretooth), and he is young and lightly raced. I'm optimistic.

I also picked up 4yo Ace Of Grace with the primary objective of using her as a broodmare. We spent a rather hefty $690K, but mares that can run 16 furlongs and put up 100+ PSRs while doing it are a rare commodity. She'll be retired at the end of the year and will match with Union Jack, another 16 furlong talent.

I've gotta trim my stable by about 4-6 horses by the end of the season to accommodate 11 new foals. Some of the horses that might have to go are Eminem, Petenwell, Kostya, Rich, Tombstone, Glymera, and Katana.

Mike Noble of Noble Farms sent me a picture proving that he was the 10,000th visitor to the Otsego Insider, so he will receive a complimentary spot with War Machine.

I am very excited to have breeding spots with two PF legends for the 2013 breeding season. Shattered Record will visit Jenny's My Gal and Nova will see Run Missy Run. Shattered Record has produced two nice runners so far (Shatterstar and Starfire) and has a War Machine colt (War Hammer) and a Union Jack filly (You Know My Name) on the way. We think JMG will be a perfect match. Nova has foals by War Machine, Dubai Gold, and Revenge, so who else but RMR can continue the trend of immortal studs?

Why can't PF owners rest their horses more? Why can't they? The current race card is littered with horses running on less than 15 days rest. It's a rookie mistake that we all make. Some of us learn from our mistakes. Some obviously don't.

Horses in my stable that excite me. In order of excitement:

1. Sabretooth - He's got talent and it's starting to show.
2. Huntress - Big Easy filly who won her first race. First time a 2yo has won it's first race for Otsego Farms since War Machine.
3. A View to a Kill - Enormous talent who will quiet the naysayers. Will race as a 5yo for Otsego Farms, then back to Merry Olde England and Bally Doyle in a pre-arranged agreement. I'm lining up mares now to breed to him.
   

The Insider is still getting visits? Hmmmm....

It's been 10 weeks since I closed up shop, yet somehow I've managed to get another 200+ visitors since then.

Not having this outlet has made me cranky. So I think I'm gonna put the band back together and give it another whirl.

I might step out a bit though and comment more on the Photo Finish community at large, rather than just my stable.

Watch out then. The Otsego Insider has been unchained and the gloves are off.