The Morphettville Guineas, which is one mile on turf for 3yo fillies, drew just two entries this year.
Lady Monarch, running out of Cavalier Stables, and Goldolphin17's Windchime will compete head-to-head in a rare match race this weekend. Both are winless in their short careers, so a maiden will be broken.
The question is... which one will prevail?
They are two entirely different types of racers, with Lady Monarch being more of the sprinting variety and Windchime leaning towards distance. This race, being at 8F, splits the difference rather nicely and makes the matchup interesting, in a number-crunching kind of way.
I called Lady Monarch a sprinter, but that is a bit of a misnomer. She really is kinda slow for short races. She also has an abnormally high kick, which argues with her sprinting stamina. All in all, her conflicting stats no doubt contribute to her overall ineffectiveness.
Classifying Windchime as a distance horse is not exactly on the mark either. She does have a nice stamina rating, but her kick is much lower than what you'd like to see in a stayer type. Also, she is a slow starter with slow early speed... OK in long races, but generally a bad combination in races of less than 9F, like The Morphettville Guineas.
So who will win?
It could really go either way. Neither horse stands out at this distance.
SCENARIO ONE: Lady Monarch grabs an early lead, stretches out to 3-4 lengths, and hangs on at the end as Windchime is gaining ground.
SCENARIO TWO: Lady Monarch leads early, but begins to falter by 6F. Windchime reels her in and wins by several lengths.
Prediction - Windchime wins.
3 comments:
And... since I'm in the predicting mood, here are my picks for the Fountain of Youth Stakes this weekend:
1) Helikaon
2) Twenty Four
3) Californication
Yeah its ashame but if you look at this weeks and next week's card there are a lot of 3yr old filly mile races.... just this week there is also the G2 Manifold worth 300k, G1 Flight worth 500k within 3 race's of each other so it was the odd one out being a mere 50k race... and I agree jimbo I can't see Helikaon being beaten I must say I have quite a feeling about my 3yr old HAVANA in the G1 George main with his weight advantage
Helikaon should win Steven, but he should have won the last race too. He loafed down the stretch and it cost him the race. Hopefully that won't happen again.
I would definitely say that Havana is the favorite in his race. I'd pick him to win, with Obama being a concern and Memento possibly having a say as well. Good luck.
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