It's not rocket science...

Newton, Archimedes, Euclid, Pythagoras, Webber.  Which name does not belong in this list?

The math is actually pretty easy.  But, it seems that I get myself into a stall squeeze every year.  I've got a couple spare stalls right now.  However, breeding at the end of the season will definitely present a problem.

I've got nine broodmares which will mean nine foals.  Are you with me so far?  I've got two stalls.  So I'd have a 7 stall deficit if the season were to end right now.  Not good.  My recent purchase of the 1yo filly Sun Dial looks decidedly stupid at the moment.

I actually knew this situation was arising.  I mentioned in the blog a long time ago that I'd have to make tough, abrupt decisions concerning my equine assets.  I simply can't afford to hang onto the early maturing types that don't quickly show some ability.

The bottom line is that between now and the end of the season, I have to divest myself of 7 horses.  Shatterstar will probably have to be one of them, even though I really like the horse.  Perhaps one broodmare will be shipped out.  Recent acquisition Sun Dial may have to be sacrificed.  The rest will be determined as the season progresses. 

I need to figure out the optimum numbers of stalls/mares/racers so that my string will self-perpetuate without all the drama every year.  Where is my slide rule?

Breeding is a great idea. Why didn't I think of that?

While I was lamenting my downward turning fortunes a couple of seasons ago, my friend Steven of Golden Acres suggested that I start breeding more foals.  "It's the only way you can get and stay successful", he said.

I was very lucky early in my career.  I bought Nightwing and Predator in my first season and watched them ring up almost $9M in earnings.  Then a couple seasons later, War Machine ran amok and added $12M to the bank account.  Union Jack then came along and chipped in another $6M.

I didn't give breeding much thought at the time.  Why bother?  I was raking in the dough easy enough and I didn't need to house broodmares and stallions or wait 2 years for the foals to begin racing.

Then my luck ran out.  My string of successful horses petered out and I had no breeding infrastructure in place to reestablish my stock.

I tried to buy some veteran racers who were a little past their prime, and had some success with the likes of Big Easy, Petenwell, and Confederation.  But that strategy eventually proved to be a dead end.  Buying castoff youngsters always seemed to end disastrously.

With my resources flagging and my patience ebbing, I got the sage advice from Steven.

So, I spent some cash and got a few mares.  Virtually every one handpicked for specific attributes.  Now, I am producing 8-10 foals every year and I'm seeing positive results that I feel will put Otsego Farms back on the map.  A couple that I have coming up that I'm particularly excited about are Juggernaut and French Twist (click for AR's).

Cya at the track!

Somebody pinch me...

Crossbones, the colt by Nightwing out of In Spirit held up his end of the bargain today by becoming my third highly-touted 3yo to win their 2014 racing debut.

He won the GR3 8.5F Santa Catalina Stakes, following House of M and Nebula who both had victories last week.  Ironically, the fillies also won GR3 races at 8.5F.  On the heels of these victories, Otsego Farms is off to our best start in many years. 

The week was not a total victory however.  Shatterstar faded in the 12F Tattersalls Plate to finish a disappointing 10th in a 13-horse field.  He ran very well for 10 furlongs before giving way badly in the last 2 furlongs.

On a side note, newly acquired Refractor ran his last race for Rainbow, finishing 7th.  He'll get a long rest before resuming racing activities.

Otsego welcomes 3yo colt Refractor

"My hand was shaking when I wrote the check for Refractor", Otsego owner Jim Webber confided after he and EC from Rainbow finalized the deal that brought the Columbian colt to the Michigan stable.

At $2,000,000, it was the largest transaction in the history of Otsego Farms, dwarfing the $1,000,000 purchase of Xtra Run (Run Missy Run x Xtra Heat) from the now defunct Noble Farms.

"I've always tried to limit my exposure by buying horses as economically as possible.  It's because I'm fiscally responsible...and Dutch on my mother's side", Webber cracked at the news conference when the purchase was announced.

"All kidding aside, I fell in love with this big fella when I first saw him.  He has a tremendous amount of stamina and that's what interests me.  I contacted EC and he was very gracious in listening to my pitch.  After a brief, polite negotiation, a deal was struck."

Refractor (Thunder Arctic x Succubus) has a current record of 5-0-0-1, but is still quite immature and great things are expected when he gains a little more experience.

Moondragon to soar in 2014?

Moondragon, the towering 17.3 hand brown filly by Moet out of Monsoon will make her debut in the next month or so and Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber is giddy with anticipation.

"She is so dang big and strong.  I can't wait to see her racing", he commented after watching her prance by on the way to the track for a workout. 

"Monsoon had some talent and we thought that Moet would be a great match for her.  We were hoping for a miler and I think that's what we got.  What we didn't expect was such a bruiser out of two relatively diminutive parents.  Hopefully that will give her the strength she needs to compete at 8 furlongs."

"Outclassed" 3yo War Hammer to get extended layoff.

"Except for being terrible out of the gate, his complete lack of speed, and poor stamina, he looked great", commented Otsego Farms owner Jim Webber after he witnessed his 3yo colt War Hammer flounder in the recent 8.5 furlong Holy Bull Stakes.

"He was completely outclassed and truth be told...I was embarrassed", Webber continued as he sipped an ice cold Perrier at Gulfstream Park after the race.

Going off at 99-1 odds, War Hammer finished 10th out of 11 entries, 38 lengths behind the winner, Mongoose from Oak Tree.  It was disclosed after the race that the last place finisher, Bally Doyle colt Majestic Rooney, was injured during the race.

Asked when War Hammer would see the track again, Webber commented, "Not for a good long while.  He's either very immature, or simply a very poor racehorse.  The only reason he didn't finish last again was because Majestic Rooney was in there."

Then seeing Bally Doyle owner Amanda O'Brien stroll by, Webber winked, raised his voice and said, "I can't depend on Bally Doyle entering a horse every time War Hammer runs, can I?"

2014 Debut: 2 Up, 1 Down.

The 2014 racing season started well for Otsego Farms with two wins in our first week of racing.

House of M, 3yo filly by War Machine out of Classical Music picked up a nice win in the Sabin Handicap.  One of the favorites at 7-2, she started slowly, took the lead late in the race, and cruised home for the victory.  She now has a career record of  5-2-1-0.

 Nebula, 3yo filly by Dubai Gold out of Nova,  also won in her 2014 debut.  She took the GR3 Affectionately Stakes by jumping to a rather fast start, gaining the lead by mid-race, and hanging on for the win.  She now sports a 5-1-1-3 lifetime mark.

Three year old colt War Hammer, by War Machine out of Shattered Record did not fare as well.  After a disastrous first race in 2013, he was shelved for the season.  Coming back more mature this year, improvement was expected.  Unfortunately, it was not to be.  He looked awful coming in at 99-1 odds and barely avoiding a last place finish only due to an injury to Bally Doyle's Majestic Rooney.  He'll get one more try to show a little more ability.

Evidently, I'm a bargain hunter...

I wasn't in the market for a horse.  Especially a non-racer.  But I just can't resist a bargain.

I was a big fan of Olmo Dorato's Beamington when he was a racer but haven't managed to get a piece of him yet.  In Glenmore's recent yearling and foal sale, I spotted Sun Dial, a 1yo filly by Beamington out of Pembertons Sign and was mildly intrigued.

She wasn't attracting much attention, probably because the breeding match with Pembertons Sign wasn't all that good.  The dam didn't have much ability over 4.5 furlongs and Beamington was a classic-type racer.  Not a pairing I would have arranged, but you never know.  At least PS had some speed at the shorter distances and if the pieces arranged themselves right, maybe Sun Dial got mommy's speed and daddy's stamina.  The AR does say she likes a lot of distance so we're halfway home right there.  One can always hope.

The clincher though was the sales price of $8000.  At that rock-bottom cost, I figured I could afford to gamble.

So, Sun Dial will be in the stall right between Samurai Jack and Tomyris and training starts as soon as she arrives.  We'll see...

Tomorrow! Tomorrow! I love ya Tomorrow!

Hope always springs eternal here at Otsego Farms.

On the heels of several less than stellar racing seasons, we are expecting major strides torwards respectability in 2014.  Based on the form they showed last year, we think that 3yos House of M, Nebula, and Crossbones are all poised for success.

House of M compiled a record of 4-1-1-0 as a 2yo.  She was in the money for her first three races before inexplicably finishing last in a 5-horse field to conclude her season.  She was a 6-5 favorite in that race but ran out of gas early and struggled to the finish.

Nebula has not broken her maiden yet, but has fashioned a nifty record of 4-0-1-3 and did it with an average PSR of 90. 

Crossbones put together a 4-0-1-1 season last year, just missing a win by a head in the Illawarra Mercury 2yo Classic. 

Additionally, Otsego Farms has nine 2yo's to roll out this year; our biggest crop ever.  When asked about the potential of the new crop, Otsego owner Jim Webber responded, "To steal a phrase from Forrest Gump, a new batch of 2yo's is like a box of chocolates.  You never know what you're gonna get."

"We're real proud of our stallions and broodmares and we've mixed in a few guest sires as well.  We've done the best we could to match sire and dam effectively and I think the odds are in our favor genetically, but it's still anyone's guess as to who will succeed and who will fail."

Deep Magic (War Machine x Isca's Revenge), Quasar (Revenge x Nova), Xtra Run (Run Missy Run x Xtra Heat) and You Know My Name (Union Jack x Shattered Record) are the youngsters most likely to make the sun come out for Otsego Farms in 2014. 

Pictoral history of The Otsego Insider

This is a compilation of most of the pictures that have been published in the Insider. 

Frankly, I do give a damn...

I downloaded the races then scanned the horse stats before looking at the results.  I was trying to determine what to expect just by looking at speed and stamina ratings.  One race in particular was pretty easy to handicap.

It was a 12F Allowance for 2yo's, and looking at the horses stats, two things were ridiculously obvious:

1. Pluto was gonna win.
2. Secret Energy was gonna lose

It was a long race and Pluto had, by far, the top stamina number (73).  Conversely, Secret Energy had, by far, the lowest stamina number (64).

I have no idea what Scott was thinking when he entered Secret Energy in this race.  With stamina that low, the AR, for what it's worth, must say SPRINTER.  If it doesn't, something is seriously haywire somewhere because that 64 stamina number is the lowest I've seen yet and it makes me believe this horse may be worthless at anything over 5 furlongs.

Of course it could be that Secret Energy is immature and possibly can aspire to an eventual stamina number of 66 or so when he grows up.  But for now, that horse is a dead-nut sprinter and the 99-1 odds and last place finish in a 12F race was abso-freeking-lutely no surprise to me.

This second example may seem unbelievable to you, but I can assure you it is true.  I perused the horse stats for the Fernhill Handicap and in my opinion the best three horses, in no particular order, were:

• Overdose
• Also Ran
• Mister Trump

I felt that Also Ran would be the winner based on the fact that he was much faster than any other horse in the race... although it looked like 8F might be a bit of a challenge for him and is probably the extent of his capabilities at this time.

Well, the horses finished 1 - Also Ran, 2 - Overdose, 3 - Mister Trump. 

The other thing I could tell you was that Scotty's Cleo was probably gonna finish last...which he did.  The horse is slow.  At least now he is.  Maybe he'll improve as he matures.

Interesting stuff.  Don't you agree?

1. That debut by War Hammer really hurt.  He looked positively atrocious.  I knew he was a late bloomer so I have no one but myself to blame for throwing him out there.  He'll sit out the rest of the season and come back as a 3yo next year.
2. Nebula looks like she may be the real deal.  She's got a record of 3-0-1-2 now and has shown a propensity to be near the front when she races. 
3. Sabretooth looked very smart winning his race this weekend.  I shortened the distance to 8F but he certainly looked strong enough to go 9F, winning the race rather easily. 
4. What is the deal with Hutton's Horse Haven?  The guy buys and sells horses like a stock market day-trader.  He's currently got four on the sales page that he has owned for less than a month.  I know, I know...leave people alone!  Let them manage their own stables!  Sorry.  It's bullshit though IMO.
5. I see Sazerac has won two consecutive races.  I guess me and Golden Acres both should have been a little more patient. 
6. I took a very close look at all of the Whisperwood offerings yesterday.  I happened to be in the right place at the right time because they were all up there in the BUY NOW section ready to be plucked.  I looked closely at race records and HRF stats and found none that interested me.  They all looked extremely speculative, but the price was right if you had the stall space.  I see several have been purchased, more than one by Olmo Dorato. 
7. Speaking of Olmo, I saw that Scottie (Nightwing x Sea Siren) finished a strong 2nd at long odds.  It was a longer race at 7 furlongs (after poor performance in 3 sprints) and I'm sure that 71 stamina rating has nothing to do with the performance.  Right.  Those numbers mean nothing.  (wink, wink)
8. Getting back to War Hammer, his HRF numbers are awful.  Slow starter, no speed, poor stamina.  I'm assuming it's because of his extreme immaturity.  It'll be interesting to see if his stamina number, which is currently 66, goes up when he matures.  Otherwise, it'll be tough to explain how that likes a lot of distance blurb came up on his AR.

Fun Video #9

One of these days, I'm gonna name a horse Rambo.

The best laid schemes of mice and men...

...go often askew.

I bought the 12yo mare Fox with the best of intentions.  In fact, I kinda stole her from another suitor with a last minute bid at auction.  I felt pretty good about that at the time because I've always liked her and I thought she would fit in nicely as a broodmare at Otsego Farms. 

I'm not feeling so good about it any more and it's not because I don't like Fox, because I still admire her as much as ever. 

My plan is to have 10 broodmares.  When Arctic Fox retires after this season, she'll make number ten.  However...my opinion regarding Domino has changed dramatically and now I'm very seriously considering keeping her as a broodmare.  If that happens, Fox will have to go.

I originally thought Domino was strictly a sprinter, and as a potential broodmare, only fit to produce more sprinters.  However, now I know that whatever she can or cannot do on the track, she has the bloodlines to produce classic racers and the stats that back it up.

So...I'm leaning that way at the moment.  Keep Domino, sell Fox.  We'll see which way the wind blows in the last third of the season...

Storyline for Weeks 33-34

We've got four horses being sent out this week, which makes it one of our bigger offerings for the season.  

With just 12 racers and our propensity to give approximately 40 days of rest, four entries is about the most we can expect in any given week.

2yo filly Nebula will run in the 6.5F Adirondack Stakes.  It will be her third career race and the longest distance thus far.  She has finished 3rd in both previous starts. 

Another 2yo, colt War Hammer will make his racing debut, also at 6.5F as mentioned in the story below.  It will be a small 5-horse field which is very agreeable to the connections at Otsego Farms.

After a six-week layoff, 4yo Sabretooth will drop down to 8F at the Evangeline Downs Mile Handicap.  He will be trying for his first victory in what has been a disappointing season.  

And finally, 4yo mare Domino will stretch to 9F in the Emerald Distaff.  She has raced primarily at 6F or less in her career thus far.  Our trainers suspect that with maturity, Domino has strengthened to the point where 9+ furlongs may be within her ability.

A big week for Otsego Farms.  We have a 2yo looking to make the next step, a valued 2yo making his first race, a veteran racer trying to prove he still has value, and a mare attempting a distance that she may not even suspect she is capable of.  Should be interesting, huh Kemosabe?

War Hammer to debut?

A colt that is highly-touted within Otsego Farms will attempt to make his debut this weekend at the GR2 Saratoga Special.

War Hammer, the hulking 17h colt by War Machine out of Shattered Record, is currently entered, but as always, owner Jim Webber reserves the right to pull him at the last moment.  

"I tend to coddle my 2yo's, no question about that.  I'm not one to send them out 12 times in 20 horse fields.  I prefer 6-8 starts maximum in the smallest fields possible", Webber stated.  "I've had War Hammer entered a couple times already and yanked him when the fields got unwieldy.  I'm not gonna send him out to get jostled around in his first race."

The Saratoga is a 6.5F affair on dirt.  Webber said, "I'd prefer a slightly longer race for his debut, but he's ready to go so we'll see what happens."

Like NPR. Love this song...

It was written in a weekend as part of a songwriting contest on NPR.  Very, very catchy.

Last chance for Tombstone.

Tombstone will forge his own destiny this weekend.  He's racing in the $50,000 Norton Shores Stakes at Pinnacle Race Course in Michigan and how he does will determine where his future lies.

The 4yo by Vampirical out of Shadowcat has been a stable favorite, but business is business, and he'll most likely make way for fresher talent if he cannot hit the board in this race.

"This is the nicest dang horse you'll ever meet.  I've never seen one with a sweeter disposition", Otsego owner Jim Webber confided as he leaned over the rail watching Tombstone on a morning breeze.  "It'd be a shame to see him go, but we're just not satisfied with what he's done on the track."

"It's a soft field so I certainly think he can contend for the win, but I'd be satisfied to see him on the board", Webber said  with a wistful smile.

Upon closer inspection....

I've been looking at a lot of horse stats lately and even though I haven't put a lot of effort into figuring out what all of the data means, I have learned a great deal from just the easiest recognizable numbers; break speed, early speed, top speed, and stamina.

I could only shake my head this evening, seeing race after race where a horse was obviously misplaced.  For example, there was a 6F sprint with a stayer who starts slowly and has mediocre speed. Looking at the data, it was painfully obvious that the horse did not have a chance.  He was entered in the wrong race and the results were just what I expected.

Not all of the races were easy to predict.  I made a game of it and tried to pick the winner by looking at the data first.  Not easy.  I was wrong more often than not.  But it was easy to pick the horses that were gonna lose... a horse with a speed figure of 88, in a sprint with a bunch of 92's and 93's for example, or a horse with a stamina of 66 in a 10F race against horses with 70 or 71 ratings.  Those weren't hard to figure out.

Better understanding your horses capabilities and limits will help with race placement.  It's easy with a horse like Heat Seeker; just put him in every big money race you can.  He'll be fine.  For most horses though, placement is more critical, and if you don't understand your horse, it's not gonna be fun.

The more horses I looked at, the more I began to get excited about the possibilities.  It seemed so refreshing to be armed with some small bits of data that support a specific race strategy, rather than the usual head-scratching bewilderment.

I'm telling you people...the info is certainly not foolproof, but it is valuable.  Very valuable.

Fun Video #8

This just never gets old.  Funniest thing ever.