Crossbones looks in mirror...sees Nightwing.

Two year old colt Crossbones started off slow, came on strong, and got nipped at the wire.

That exact scenario was endured a dozen times by his sire Nightwing, who had a marked propensity for slow starts and lackadaisical finishes.  Crossbones ran a nice race, but just didn't maintain concentration at the finish, getting edged by the filly Bravy's Lass.

Another 2yo, filly House of M also finished 2nd this week.  She was frightfully blocked, but had enough strength to roar out of the crowd to hit the board, 9 lengths behind Golden Acres' Character.

These encouraging showings, plus the positive races by the 2yo filly Nebula, have given us some hope for the rest of the year and next season.  Our fourth 2yo, War Hammer, has yet to make his racing debut.

The other two racers this week, Shatterstar and Ultron, both disappointed with off the board finishes.

Hope this won't cause a problem....

Since I wholeheartedly agree that all horse data should be made accessible to all...

On the Photo Finish website, go to:

1. RACING
2. RESULTS
3. DOWNLOAD CURRENT RESULTS
4. Pick race your horse is in and right-click
5. Open file on Excel spreadsheet if possible

The spreadsheet displays the data.  I'm still in the process of identifying all data, but the first four columns are:

• break speed
• early speed
• top speed
• long stamina

Here are some results from a randomly opened race:

Bourbon 73-93-94-68

Prince Majestic 82-90-90-72

Imagination 83-89-90-68

Lord of War 76-87-88-69

Midnite Brilliance 76-90-93-68

Typical Conflict 78-91-92-67

Eminem 78-89-90-69

Argument 68-94-94-66

I'm not familiar with any of these horses except for Eminem, but it looks like you can glean the following from this limited amount of data...

Argument is very fast, but it looks like he has limited stamina and is a very slow starter.

Prince Majestic evidently has alot more stamina than his owner suspects.

Imagination looks to be a very fast starter.  I'd race him in the shortest races possible.

Lord of War is not terribly fast, which is probably very bad unless you have 71+ stamina

Bon appetit!

Fairy tales can come true. It can happen to you....

Up until recently, I had not thought of Domino as a broodmare candidate.  She just didn't seem to have the lung strength that I prefer.  But new information has made me reconsider her future.

Her AR, which was probably written by the Brothers Grimm, stipulates plainly that she is a sprinter.  Given her parentage of War Machine x Sharp Cat that did not seem likely, but who am I to question what is written so resolutely in black and white?  Therefore, she has been running, with mediocrity, at around 6 furlongs.

Imagine my surprise when I discover that as a 3yo, she has a top speed / long stamina combo of 92/70?  That my friends is the same score that Smart Money had on the day he ran the Kentucky Derby in 2006.

I am not suggesting that Domino is as good as Smart Money.  That would be absurd.  I am suggesting however, that Domino is probably not a sprinter and I feel somewhat cheated that I am finding this out only now, at the end of her career.

War Machine was 92/71 when he won the Kentucky Derby.  Domino was 92/70.  This is a sprinter?  It's my own fault for believing that fool AR...I ate the poisoned apple.  But, if I had the correct information from the start, this kind of thing wouldn't happen.

I've been proposing that all foals are delivered with the full HRF data sheet.  Obviously, it should be confidential; share it or not at your discretion.  But for Heaven's sake, lets get the info out there so we don't waste racing careers trying to fit square pegs into round holes.

Anyway, after seeing that Domino has more steam than I ever suspected, I'm seriously considering keeping her on as a breeder.  Given my current stall allotment, that would mean another mare may have to be sold.

Maybe I'll have to go with eleven broodmares and cut my racers down to just 5 or 6.  One thing is for certain though.  I have a new found respect for Domino and I'm darn sorry I sold her short for the past few years.  Who knows how many of you have done the same thing?  

All because of a lack of simple information.  Kind of a shame, isn't it?

Fun Video #7

Rocky Balboa.  Need I say more?

What? You sold who?

As predicted, three year old fillies Starfire and Titanium were both sold this week and even I am surprised that I pulled the trigger on these sales as both fillies had very high expectations.

Titanium was purchased at auction for $750,000 from Rivendell.  She was highly regarded in our camp because her sire was Dubai Gold.  We had hoped for a miler/classic type, but as we worked with her it was obvious that she was a sprinter.  Unfortunately, in her stint at Otsego Farms she did not exhibit the necessary speed to compete.  The Raja Stables bought her for $5000. 

Starfire was bred by Otsego Farms; a full sister to Shatterstar.   We really feel that this filly has some talent, but we have been unable to tap it.  Sunset Ranch purchased her for $50,000 with the intention of using her as a broodmare in the future.

With stalls being at a premium at this time, and the season being half over, it was necessary to begin the culling process.  We still need to move 3-4 more horses before the end of the year so eyebrows at Otsego Farms may be raised again in the very near future.

Fillies face fallout from failures.

Arctic Fox - 6yo

Her talent is undeniable and her AR leads me to believe she'll be a good broodmare.  I bought her at the beginning of this season and she has already paid for herself with winnings.  Verdict:  IN

Domino - 4yo

Because she is a sprinter, she'll probably not stay on as a broodmare at Otsego Farms.  Her racing skill is getting marginally better, but she just doesn't have the raw talent for higher graded races.  Verdict:  OUT?

Starfire - 3yo

Has shown flashes of talent, but we have not been able to coax any sort of consistency from her, let alone a win.  She has hit the board in 50% of her races, so she is capable of winning enough cash to pay her way, but as I said in a previous post; mediocrity will not be tolerated.  Verdict:  OUT

Huntress - 3yo

Won her first race and hasn't come close since.  I cannot figure her out.  Is she a sprinter, a miler, or does she indeed have classic distance ability as hinted by her AR?  Because she has a win, her leash is a bit longer.  Verdict: IN for now.

Titanium - 3yo

Has not shown why she deserves a stall.  Verdict:  OUT

House of M - 2yo

Put up an 85 PSR in her debut and has given us some hope for her future.  Verdict:  IN

Nebula - 2yo

Finished in 3rd in both of her races with solid PSR's of 81 and 94.  We're feeling very good about Nebula at the moment.  Verdict:  IN

We've got some interesting fillies on the way up next year.  Miler Moondragon is by Moet out of Monsoon.  Xtra Run runs classic distances and is by Run Missy Run out of Xtra Heat.  And, You Know My Name, who is by Union Jack out of Shattered Record will also run at classic distances.  Hopefully these girls can have some success next season.

Guilty as charged!

Why do I always find myself in the middle of some kind of controversy?

The forum thread that began as a synopsis of weeks 23-24 morphed into a discussion on how Gradient won the Belmont so easily.  Then deliberation began on how close or far Photo Finish was from horse racing reality.  And finally, it reached it's climax with me defending the travel schedule of War Machine during his Triple Crown winning 2006 racing season.

In the thread, I merely said I was amazed at the way Gradient came from so far back, on a track he hated, to win.  I said his comeback was improbable and that was certainly how things looked at the 7-8 furlong mark while I was watching it.  None of that is an indictment against Gradient.  I love the horse.

But somehow, my comments spurred an investigation into War Machine's history and the conclusion reached was that his entire 3yo season was improbable.

Yeah, maybe it was.  Almost everything in Photo Finish is improbable.  That's why I like to suggest rules changes like travel restrictions, rest mandates, and a host of other things.  I'd like things to be more realistic.  But that's just me.  Others, many others, like things just the way they are.

OK.  I'm ready to move on.  As long as no one brings up Nightwing's race history in 2003, I'll let this whole topic go.....for now.

Otsego picks up 4yo Desert Find

Desert Find, the 4yo colt by Dubai Millennium out of Skyfinder has been purchased by Otsego Farms for $1000.

"I was quite surprised to see a colt of quality on the sales page for this kind of price", Otsego owner Jim Webber commented. 

Desert Find has a current record of 7-0-0-2 with earnings of $56,000.  He has some potential though, as witnessed by his speed numbers of 83, 99, 99, 89 in his last 4 races.

"Stonewall has a reputation for breeding and patience.  As you can see, this 4yo only has 7 career races.  I'm not sure why Bill gave up on him at this point, but when I see a horse for sale with the name Stonewall next to it, I immediately take notice", Webber said as he supervised the loading of Desert Find for the trip to Otsego.

Obviously in reference to a certain topic that currently rages in the forum, Webber continued with a wink, "We've got quite a schedule in mind for this boy.  He'll be racing in Tokyo on Monday, Melbourne on Wednesday, Los Angeles on Friday, and New York on Saturday". 

Live long and prosper Titanium. Just not here.

I bought her based on her breeding.  I'm a big fan of sire Dubai Gold, and dam Dulcinea was very respectable herself.  My gut told me Titanium could be worthwhile, plus I liked the name.  Sucker!

I stretched out a bit and paid $750,000.  That figure ranks, I believe, as the second highest purchase price I have ever paid.  Therefore, it also ranks as one of the biggest busts in Otsego Farms history.

This purchasing debacle was one of the reasons I decided to quit buying foals at auction and start breeding my own.  I figure I can save a million bucks a year by refusing to buy over-produced, over-priced foals that the original owner didn't even want, and simply make my own.

So, lesson learned.  If I can buy an unraced foal that I like for a reasonable price, say under $50,000, I might partake occasionally, but for the most part, I'm out.

Who knows?  This filly still might have some potential for the right owner.  She'll hit the sales page in the next day or so.  Contact me if you have any interest and I'll have her beamed right over.

Mad experimentation with blog format...

If you have stopped by every so often in the past couple days, you've been subjected to a few different formats for this blog.  I've been tinkering with headers, backgrounds, fonts, border colors, and pretty much everything else.

If you saw the title page with the colorful horse drawing and the wood background, you saw my wife Terry's favorite.  I initially liked it as well, but something was nagging at me.  A reader commented that it was difficult to read with all that wood, and I had to agree.

I've fiddled with several incarnations and for the time being, have settled on what you see now.  I kinda liked the one with the black background (did you see it?) but Terry forbade it.  Frankly, she's not sold on the way it is now either.  She says it too boring.  What do you think?

Reminds me of me...

The fight scene in the hallway is epic...

House of M, Crossbones run. Mixed reviews..

Ettore of the prolific Olmo Dorato said, "Ho visto la corsa di House of M, sono pronto a scommettere che è un futuro champion!!"  Very encouraging words, because we know that man may be the best judge of talent in Photo-Finish.  I certainly hope he is right.  Thanks Ettore!

House of M did look solid in her debut.  The HRF ratings of EX/VG matched those of her sire War Machine, and she ran a steady race.  

She looked ready to stretch out but was boxed in for the majority of the race, finishing 4th in a field of 12.  She'll stay exclusively on dirt, but probably won't run again at less than 8 furlongs.

Crossbones looked less impressive.  He started slowly, and lagged in the back of the pack the entire race.  

We'll try him on turf and at a couple different distances to see if he has any potential.  With limited stall space for racers, he gets about 4-5 opportunities to show that he can compete before we give up on him.

Two to debut. How will they do? Haven't a clue.

Would it help if I knelt in a pew?

Filly House of M (War Machine x Classical Music) and colt Crossbones (Nightwing x In Spirit) will both make their racing debut's this weekend.

To say I'm nervous would be an understatement.  Even though I have paid close attention to all of my breeding matchups, I really have had minimal success over the years.  And, with my stable being somewhat non-competitive at the moment, my hopes hinge mightily on the youngsters who are coming up this year and next.

Nebula (Dubai Gold x Nova) had a decent start with a 3rd place at the William Tell Stakes a couple weekends ago, so that is encouraging.

We feel House of M has the tools to be very good, and her resemblance to War Machine is striking, making her a sentimental favorite.  However, her dam Classical Music has had little success as a broodmare.  In fact, two of her recent current prodigy,  Beethoven and Freedom, can only be described as very poor racers.  Hopefully, M can break that trend.  She'll run in a 12-horse field; 5 furlongs on her preferred surface of dirt.

Crossbones may have the genetic potential to succeed.  His dam has only a single offspring racing, Majestic Spirit, but the 3yo filly has impressed early with a record of 10-3-2-1 and earnings over $400,000.  He'll run in a 9-horse field over 5 furlongs on dirt.

So this weekend will determine, in a large way, whether the season will be a building block for the future, or simply a stepping stone until next year.

Flying blind with a new filly...

Two-year old House of M may make her debut this weekend and I haven't got a clue what to expect.

Out of Classical Music by War Machine, the filly has a very strong AR, but what does that really tell you?  Nothing, that's what.  Here it is:

House of M (2011), 15.2 hand chestnut filly

By War Machine out of Classical Music by Black Tie Affair

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse is good in mud.

This horse is ok on hard turf.

This horse is poor on soft turf.

This horse is of average soundness.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse likes a lot of distance.

She likes dirt and distance.  Exactly what I expect and hope for from a foal by War Machine.  But this tells me nothing about her real potential.  Is she fast or slow?  Does she have courage?  What is her best distance?

As I said on the forum, by the time a horse is a 2yo, we should know more than she likes dirt and distance.  As someone said, if that's all my trainer can tell me after 12 months of day-to-day training, he's fired!

How about something like this for a slightly modified AR?

House of M (2011), 15.2 hand chestnut filly

By War Machine out of Classical Music by Black Tie Affair

Mature quickly.

Average performance peak.

Prefers hard dirt.

Prefers soft dirt.

Good in mud.

OK on hard turf.

Poor on soft turf.

Rest need: Machine

Top speed rating of 90.

Best at 10 furlongs.

Potential: 82

The last rating is purely fictitious.  It would be nice if there was a mathematical formula whereby an amalgamation of PF data is condensed into a single number that would try to predict the racing potential of a given horse.  It could be done, I'm sure.  You'd have to take into account, speed, courage, durability, consistancy, and all the other salient attributes.  Deductions would have to be factored in for things like poor break speed for sprinters, poor acceleration, and injury potential.  I have no doubt that one of our gifted PF participants could come up with something that would suffice.

This is just a quick example off the top of my head.  The truth is, we need something better, AR-wise,  than we have now.  Anyone else have any ideas?

Fun Video #6

One of my favorite scenes from one of my favorite movies...

Triple Crown in jeopardy?

Now hold on a cotton-picking minute!

It seems like many people had assumed that Krazy Sheikh was going to win the American Triple Crown this year.  Obviously EC at Rainbow who owns the powerful colt Gradient didn't get that memo.  

The 17.1 hand black colt nipped Port Pirie's Two Thousand at the wire to win the 11th Kentucky Derby, and now the question is: can he win the Triple Crown?

With his excellent stamina, (Otsego Insider http://otsegofarms.blogspot.com/2009/07/ummm-that-horse-looks-awful-strong.html) Gradient has to be considered the heavy favorite at the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes, but can he win the obligatory Preakness first?

The 9.5-furlong Preakness probably favors the speed horses like Two Thousand and Krazy Sheikh, but based on his stunning time in the Derby, you obviously can't rule Gradient out.

If he wins the Preakness, he is probably a shoo-in to join War Machine as a winner of the American Triple Crown.

Anybody seen my pitchfork?

I was speaking with the esteemed Mike Noble of Noble Farms today regarding the comments in the "Yes, I'm going there..." thread in the Photo Finish forum.

Mike and I don't actually talk that often, but in light of the flammability of that topic and the comments it was generating, I simply had to talk to somebody and he was convenient.

As we discussed our opinions, and the predictability of some of the other responses, he made the comment to me, and I paraphrase, "You used to be considered a nice guy, and you're not (considered) nice anymore."

Well folks, that cut me.  Deep.

Trust me, I am still a nice guy.  I'm just a nice guy with opinions.  I say what I think and I don't say things I don't mean.

The truth is, I always have the best interest of Photo Finish at heart.  No kidding.  Do you think I would have stuck around for almost 7 years, ten racing seasons, and written hundreds of articles in this blog if I didn't care?

I make a lot of comments and suggestions.  There are probably people out there who wish I would shut the hell up sometimes.  But I won't because the exchange of ideas is important to the evolution of this game.

There are many who are happy with the status quo.  I'm not.  If new ideas and the lobbying for rule changes upset the general populace...sorry.  But things move slowly here at Photo Finish; that is one of it's charms I suppose.  So, changes won't catch you off guard.

So, if being more verbal than the average PF participant makes me into the bad guy, I guess I can live with that.  Just remember, I'm not really a bad guy.  I'm a good guy who's willing to put on the black hat occasionally for the good of Photo Finish.

It gets earlier every year...

We are just in weeks 19-20 of the racing season and already the stud advertisements for next year have begun.  Time sure flies, huh?

Foxie fired the first salvo a month or so ago when she began lining up suitors for Jenny's My Gal.  Then just recently, a flurry of activity began with Hoosier Daddy, Bally Doyle, and Oak Tree all commencing to make arrangements for their fine studs.

I was able to get my name on two stud lists.  Our Differences will pair up with either Nova or Immortal, and A View to a Kill will match with Shattered Record.

Interestingly, the stud usage comes with a proviso in the case of three of these four stables. 

Foxie's Lodge is only accepting list mares for Jenny's My Gal.  And, in some cases, Bally Doyle and Oak Tree studs are both open to approved stables only.

I have absolutely no problem with either case.  In fact, I've been doing it myself, unofficially of course, for the past couple seasons.

I don't charge stud fees for War Machine, Nightwing, and Union Jack.  As it says on my blog, they are available only on a quid pro quo basis.  Translation:  If you have a stud I want to use, or if we have had successful dealings in the past, or if I like you, you can use my studs.

I don't even advertise my boys anymore.  If they don't get used outside of Otsego Farms, so be it.

By the way, I'll be retiring Arctic Fox after this season.  Is it too early to send the year-end report to Laurie?

The greatest race of all-time.

I've watched virtually every one of the races that my horses have run, along with hundreds of other big races over my 10 seasons in Photo Finish.  To this day, I still  contend that the greatest race I've ever seen was #465, the 8.5f Fountain of Youth Stakes on 2-21-04. 

It was a stiff field containing such Photo Finish icons as Dubai Gold, Thief of Hearts, Troll Tower, and Blushing Approval.  As a result, Nightwing was a 14-1 longshot.  Even Argonath, Spendthrift, and Swaleaway all had better odds from the bookmakers.  It was Nightwing's third career race and his first try on dirt.

He was post position 7 in the 11-horse field and quickly fell back to trail the field when they got underway.

1F - 12 lengths off the leader.

2F - 15 lengths back.

3F - 15 lengths back as they come out of the first turn.

4F - Still 15 lengths off the pace.

5F - 13 lengths back after having made up a little ground.

6F - Still 13 lengths back midway through the back turn.  Just 2.5 furlongs to go.

7F - Sweeping up and past a group but still 9 lengths back.  1.5 furlongs left.

7.5F - Battling Troll Tower for third.  Dubai Gold and Thief of Hearts are still 7 lengths ahead with just 1F to go.

8F - Blows past Troll Tower and making up ground on the tired leaders, but still 5 lengths back with just 1/16th of a mile to go.

To cap off a miraculous comeback, Nightwing went to the rail and showed incredible heart by running down Dubai Gold to win by a short length.

I have never seen a more exciting finish or a gutsier performance and that's why, in my opinion, it ranks as the best PF race of all-time.

Fun Video #5

You might recognize this tune since it was the theme song of the series "Jockey's".  Incredible hand work.  Kinda slow through the first 45 seconds or so.  Stick with it.